The Strongest El Niño Ever

7/26/2026 at 6:54:57 PM

The buried lede:

What does all this mean for global temperatures? Because global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event’s warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin

I’m certainly no climate scientist, but if I lived in Europe, I would absolutely be looking into how to get a solar energy system set up and at least one window air-conditioning unit if not a heat pump before next summer

by aaronbrethorst

7/26/2026 at 8:31:56 PM

I don't mean to be divisive, but this meme-like stream of news articles and comments about Europeans being silly about air conditioning, from the drill-baby-drill nation that refused to even try to do anything about climate change, really grates on me.

by bcoughlan

7/26/2026 at 8:55:08 PM

It's clearly an op by people who don't want the story to be about a historic heatwave ravaging Europe, so instead they make it about dum Europeans without air conditioning (which they didn't need before).

by jordanb

7/26/2026 at 8:37:01 PM

I didn’t see anything meme-like in the comment you responded to. Or even anything related to environmentalism. To me, it just looked like good health advice.

by tshaddox

7/26/2026 at 9:02:02 PM

In case you don't know, there is a meme in the US that Europe don't know/don't have A/C. We do, but in some coutries there are laws banning A/C below 25°C (77°F) in public places, so (US) tourist don't get the cold air hit when entering a building like a musseum, leaving with the impression we don't know A/C.

No general A/C might be the case in regions that never needed it before (mild summers, cold winters), but their presence is increasing.

by otherme123

7/26/2026 at 8:54:52 PM

It would be one thing if Europe immediately stopped using coal, drastically reduced airline usage, quit building gasoline cars, but if anything it is only marginally better than the US. Europe mostly shifted their dirty work to Asia and North America, while restricting themselves from using air conditioning as some kind of virtue signaling. That's the problem as I see it.

by yostrovs

7/26/2026 at 9:20:58 PM

We literally destroyed our car industry to try to steer the incoming catastrophe a bit, what the fuck do you want more. Germany tried to be the leader of solar but that was stolen err migrated to China, whole world profits now.

While US, China and rest of the world did nothing similar, just stood and let shit hit the fan hard. Gotta milk those petrodollars till the last cent because thats all that counts, fuck our children right. Yeah we are not going to burn ourselves further to the cinder to prove some anonymous yostrovs something he anyway refuses to see.

by kakacik

7/26/2026 at 8:10:24 PM

So we've been stupid "solar oven" buildings for 50 years while climate scientists were warning against extreme weather events and, now that said extreme event arrives, the best we find is to rush to aircon.

Seems pretty short-sighted to me.

by sdeframond

7/26/2026 at 8:58:45 PM

I live in SoCal and am continually shaking my head at the architecture. So my floor-to-ceiling glass buildings in a climate known for sunny weather. So much extra air-conditioning will be spent to cool those buildings compared to if they had been built more reflective.

by 3eb7988a1663

7/26/2026 at 9:16:10 PM

I'd try hanging long sheets of aluminum foil in too-large windows. I imagine someone in academia has studied this.

by euroderf

7/26/2026 at 8:24:39 PM

I feel every comment section related to weather and climate seems to have the same winging about buildings. Cold? Europe has amazing buildings, hot? Europe has been building ovens... it's interesting psychology.

Edit: We cannot blame people for buildings things that worked when we had a stable climate but are no long suitable for all these extremes. We needed to fix the emissions issue 30-50 year ago to avoid this. We knew it and we collectively ignored it. I get your point, we could've "planned ahead" but if you build something that wasn't suitable / cost effective for the time it was built, you'd be out of business.

50 years ago no one was going to pay extra for a building that might be important in 100 years because we didn't stop burning fossil fuels in time.

by bamboozled

7/26/2026 at 8:44:08 PM

> you'd be out of business.

Correct. And we'd be "out of business" too as a country if we decided alone to fix emissions. Other economies would have passed ours because burning oil is so damn useful.

Thing is, I don't feel we are changing much in this respect. Now the best idea we come up with is burning more fuel for aircon...

by sdeframond

7/26/2026 at 8:59:40 PM

> Now the best idea we come up with is burning more fuel for aircon...

I mean really what else is there? We can't undo the warming, we can't rebuild every building in Europe (even if we could, would it work? Winter will still happen too). We can install solar panels and air conditioners, though.

by queenkjuul

7/26/2026 at 8:51:43 PM

Don't worry it will even out when the Gulf Stream chokes out /s

by tokai

7/26/2026 at 8:58:27 PM

...or not ? As el Nino would say: Porque no los dos ?

by cassepipe

7/26/2026 at 8:56:47 PM

> I would absolutely be looking into how to get [...] at least one window air-conditioning unit if not a heat pump before next summer

Before you do that, do the cost effective thing: shadow and wind. Then you can add an aircon iff thats not enough.

For shadow, reftrofitting adjustable sunshade is pretty effective. Sunlight brings about 1kw per square meter of window. That like having your heater at full power when its already hot.

For wind: fans, preferably ceiling fans. Lowers perceived temperature by about 3.5 °C.

by sdeframond

7/26/2026 at 9:11:33 PM

Uncomfortable heat has nothing to do with temperature and everything to do with air humidity. Only an AC can lower the humidity, by conditioning the air.

by carlosjobim

7/26/2026 at 9:19:24 PM

> Uncomfortable heat has nothing to do with temperature and everything to do with air humidity

That is not correct. Heat, wind and humidity all contribute.

In a dry air with no wind, your body creates a "hot and humid" bubble around it if you are not moving. A fan helps.

Humid but neither cold nor hot air may not feel great, but not that bad.

Hot and humid air with no wind, now that's bad.

by sdeframond

7/26/2026 at 8:44:05 PM

I live in Europe. We have in fact invented air conditioning here too, but I am not concerned with what we should be doing next year. That's a trivial matter. I'm concerned about what will happen if this trend continues another 5-10 years. How do we make sure that doesn't happen?

by delusional

7/26/2026 at 9:24:08 PM

> How do we make sure that doesn't happen?

That's the neat part, you don't.

Europe has saved on CO2 emissions by moving production to China, and more recently to India and Southern Asia, moving energy generation for factories onto coal power, significantly INCREASING the rate at which climate change occurs.

China and India have made it very clear that, first, they will continue to do this. Also adding solar power, but not lowering coal power. They added that it is "inappropriate" to even ask them to do so (that was China).

Oh and thanks to reliance on Russian gas, and the Ukraine war, the EU is forced to move to coal and LNG supplies, which are even worse than coal. Plus, of course, that means that it's not just coal plants getting worse for climate change but almost all power plants in Europe.

To do something about it, due to Jevon's paradox the only countries that can lower CO2 emissions are the ones digging up fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, US, Norway, the Netherlands, Britain. You have zero chance to convince any of them to stop doing it, burning and selling oil, not even Norway is doing that. And any oil or gas dug up and sold will be burned.

There never was any serious intent, not even on the part of the greens (at least not in Germany, I mean, they even published an article on the subject: eliminating nuclear power was more important than climate change in 2003). And if even they weren't willing to make it a priority, who exactly are you supposing will do it?

Even in 2026, even Germany, increased it's reliance on coal (they're keeping 10GW of additional coal power at the ready, on top of the 20% of Germany's power that's constantly using coal), similar measures have been taken in Japan, Italy, and India has even delayed maintenance on existing coal power plants to increase electricity production from them.

And of course, there's the basic physics part. Aside from a small rounding error climate change is cumulative. Which means once fossil fuels are burned the temperature will rise accordingly. Even if we stopped burning it won't get better.

To merely stop climate change from getting worse, just that, nothing more, we have to cut CO2 emissions worldwide by 99.7 (and some models say 99.97%, there's a surprising range there). That will just stop it from getting worse. It won't make it better. Anything less is not "a good effort" it simply makes things worse.

All policies taken so far to stop climate change have not just made things worse, but increased the rate at which it's getting worse. Doing nothing at all would have been a lot better (because it would have kept factories in the EU going, on much cleaner power).

Oh, and by the way, this was all perfectly clear and known 10 years ago, and nobody changed course. So ...

There is no remotely realistic solution in the current policy directions.

And geoengineering ... is not really allowed to be discussed. Or this argument is being put forward at the UN. Any (successful) geoengineering will have dramatic negative consequences for some states and people. And since that is considered unacceptable, because large portions of the human race are currently dependent on global warming continuing. We won't do that either.

So yeah, I'd get some solar panels and an air conditioner.

by spwa4

7/26/2026 at 7:20:43 PM

El Nino mostly affects temperature in winter. It can raise the baseline a little in summer but that's not the problem with the heat waves we have this year. There is no buried lede but there is a lot of misunderstanding about El Nino on your side.

by trentor

7/26/2026 at 6:56:55 PM

[flagged]

by throwaway_7274

7/26/2026 at 6:58:08 PM

> hello

Wow, clearly Gemini

by sailingparrot

7/26/2026 at 7:40:24 PM

> if not a heat pump

Most heat pump installations in Europe are air-to-water systems fitted to use the existing piping in old homes and is used only for heating. Such installations can, in theory, be used for cooling, but very inefficiently.

by usrnm

7/26/2026 at 8:01:28 PM

Seems like a good thing for them to reconsider between now and next summer!

by aaronbrethorst

7/26/2026 at 8:01:35 PM

> Most heat pump installations in Europe are air-to-water systems

I'm not sure thats true.

Most aircon in "warm" europe is standard split aircon

The "heatpump" shit that the UK is sorta looking at is as you describe. However its half the price to install "aircon" over heatpumps (because grants, amongst other things)

Like most recently refurbished offices will use normal aircon (certainly all the one I have worked in)

by KaiserPro

7/26/2026 at 7:43:51 PM

The annoying thing is that UK at least has a bigger grant for air-to-water systems.

I've been doing some research into this, because I would ideally like to get this system so I can make use of the existing radiators in my old house, but I do also want to have the option of cooling my home. It does seem like Fan Coil Units (FCUs) are an option for this. Anyone have experience with these? Are they really inefficient compared to standard air-to-air units?

by dom96

7/26/2026 at 7:53:57 PM

The problem is, if you feed cold water into your normal heating pipes, all the piping and radiators will get wet from condensation. So you would have to have a regulator that measures air moisture and temperature in all your rooms and only feeds water with a temperature above the dew point. This is possible, but inefficient and (especially on hot+wet days) doesn't cool very well.

The possible real fixes are either to section off your water circuits in summer, and only run the properly cold water through FCUs, wall or ceiling loops.

Or to get a multisplit heat pump, use a normal refrigerant-air indoor unit to cool and a refrigerant-water indoor unit to heat the water loops.

by thyristan

7/26/2026 at 8:23:50 PM

Yeah, I wasn't planning to run the cold loops through the existing radiator piping. I just want the ability to cool at least 1 room by reusing the air-to-water system, even if that means the FPU requires its own piping from the outside.

In that scenario, are FPUs a good option? Are there other drawbacks?

by dom96

7/26/2026 at 8:57:24 PM

Most Francoils I know don’t have a way to get rid of any condensation that happens in the unit like internal air conditioning units do. So even if you run the piping outside of the house you have condensation in the unit and the floors, not to mention the walls.

Even then, there is a fair limit in cooling and efficiency you can get from them because of the lack of phase changes occurring.

If you have a balanced mechanical ventilation (both inlet and outlet) that would be one of the best options to condition the whole house without putting air conditioning units everywhere. Having said that, we turn on the air conditioning in the attic during hot days which removes the biggest heat and moisture from the house. Next up is installing more sun blinds to prevent the heat from entering in the first place.

by spockz

7/26/2026 at 7:01:40 PM

And by a sizable margin they mean maybe 4 degrees Celsius.

Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario and we're currently about 1.1 degrees.

All that warming that we caused but didn't actually happen? Turns out the ocean saves it up.

by inigyou

7/26/2026 at 7:06:17 PM

> Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario

No, it's not end of the world. 3C is where things start getting bad. 1.5C is the target for the 2015 Paris climate agreement to try and avoid hitting 2C.

We are looking at more severe droughts, flash floods, and rising oceans where we are at, but not the worst of it like mass 40C wet bulb heat domes which wipe out all life underneath them.

by cogman10

7/26/2026 at 9:03:19 PM

This is an incorrect way to frame the impacts of temperature increases. 1.5, 2, 3C makes extreme events like the one you stated significantly more likely in a probabilistic sense. The ability of adapt is in part driven by frequency of extreme events as much as it is adaptability to specific thresholds. We are already experiencing deadly heat bulb events at current warming levels, the impacted areas and frequency of these events will strictly increase.

by jakebol

7/26/2026 at 7:36:15 PM

[flagged]

by tjwebbnorfolk

7/26/2026 at 7:47:09 PM

Well that's a relief, glad I am a turtle then and so are most of my friends, and that our whole world economy and food system runs on turtles. So we should be fine.

by tpurves

7/26/2026 at 8:09:38 PM

You are right, it is an exaggeration.

I should have said "land life" as the ocean temperature doesn't shift that much with the above ocean temps.

And I'm sure there's some random bacteria and fungus that can survive and thrive at 40C web bulb.

What doesn't tend to do so well is the likes of humans, birds, cattle, horses, mice, rats, insects, many crops, native animal life that didn't evolve to handle high heat temperatures.

The last time earth will have been as hot as the 3C temperature was prehistorically.

by cogman10

7/26/2026 at 7:51:38 PM

I wonder if "but the turtles survived and I was right!" is the best way to look at it if humanity is close to extinction in the next century or so.

by MrGilbert

7/26/2026 at 7:57:39 PM

…and from here, it’s turtles all the way down.

by egman_ekki

7/26/2026 at 8:10:31 PM

Yes for temperature but what about CO2 ppm?

by whynotmaybe

7/26/2026 at 7:57:44 PM

So ... It's turtles all the way down?

by ahofmann

7/26/2026 at 7:52:37 PM

The 1.5C target (which, as others pointed out, is not an end-of-the-world scenario) is about average temperature above pre-industrial baseline across 20 years. The temperature anomaly of a single year has nothing to do with that; 2028 will likely be colder again.

Average temperature moves in cycles. By confusing single-year temperatures with the 1.5C target, you're just going to make people think "crisis averted" once 2028 turns out to be cold.

by mort96

7/26/2026 at 7:05:08 PM

Does anyone knows how much more the oceans can absorb heat?

by fredski42

7/26/2026 at 7:08:30 PM

Well they seem to have switched to releasing stored heat. Isn't that basically the El Nino / La Nina cycle?

Metaphorically relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limnic_eruption

by inigyou

7/26/2026 at 8:08:45 PM

To vaporize 10^21 kg of seawater from ~4 °C to 100 °C would require ~10^27 joules, around 16 trillion Hiroshimas or ~2.5 seconds of the sun's output.

by delichon

7/26/2026 at 8:46:56 PM

the oceans can adsorb a great deal more heat, but all the ice will melt, while the deap ocean water expands, from it's rather odd temperature ,that keeps it at the highest density possible, about .5% more than if it were just a bit warmer, so more warming will cause very significsnt sea level rise through several different mechanisms related to heat.

by metalman

7/26/2026 at 7:05:02 PM

What's interesting to me is that almost all models underestimated the ocean temperature.

We are entering uncharted waters and I fear that at some point we will get an extreme extreme weather event and the worse thing is that we won't see it coming.

by gonzalohm

7/26/2026 at 7:45:38 PM

That should be the scary part. We know how El Niño affects world's weather, but it is also a symptom of how much heat the ocean is absorbing.

That core problem won't end this year or the next one, and it will keep disrupting global climate. And with it, agriculture, settlements, economy and civilization as we know it.

And the scariest part is what we do about it. Keep doing activities that rise global temperature and power up positive feedback loops, weakening or abolishing climate policies, and when things start to feel urgent will try things by the fast way with unclear outcomes.

by gmuslera

7/26/2026 at 9:13:44 PM

- There is no "we", but it would take "we" to fix this.

- There is a global scale issue, but no consensus on this being a problem. Not at the global, continental, local or individual level. FFS, there are idiots proudly rolling coal.

- Leadership - in the rare places on earth where it is somewhat accountable - reflects this lack of consensus.

- Acknowledging the problem does not equal acting even on an individual level.

- There's lots of cognitive dissonance. Why am I even flying to the other side of the world next week?

We are cooked. Not so much us old farts, but the children.

by markvdb

7/26/2026 at 8:43:11 PM

It’s all so scary! I regret having a child.

by hammock

7/26/2026 at 9:14:40 PM

I don’t. But I will at least consider the thinking about my kids (8, 4) should look into alternative paths.

by grvdrm

7/26/2026 at 7:14:17 PM

Well, we can see it coming, but we are doing very little about

by jonwinstanley

7/26/2026 at 8:56:01 PM

We are doing a lot. Almost 90% of electricity capacity added last year was renewables. Nearly 1 in 3 cars sold are now EVs. The world is spending over $2 trillion every year on low‑carbon energy investment. Solar and wind have already avoided more than 2 gigatons of C02 being added to the atmosphere. In the US, the IRA will drop emissions 40% to below 2005 levels.

What do you mean we are doing very little?

by CGMthrowaway

7/26/2026 at 9:06:22 PM

It should be at the level od the economy of war but worldwide. The majority reacted too late to have the possibility to act slowly.

by logtempo

7/26/2026 at 7:15:53 PM

We've been seeing our own certain destruction from climate change coming since the 70s. The 1870s. We had two entire lifetimes to do something about it, we didn't.

Except those guys throwing soup at the fossil fuel HQs. They did a little.

by inigyou

7/26/2026 at 7:43:38 PM

We're building more data centers for a technology that's ramping global warming even faster. Water consumption, heat generation and tons and tons of CO2 emitting concrete to house these things.

So we're doing something, but those things are counterproductive to our planet's general well being. Apparently billionaires don't need an inhabitable Earth to live on.

by windexh8er

7/26/2026 at 8:04:59 PM

Yeah, data-centers are definitely the worst thing happening to the planet. You got your priorities straight.

AI data centers are what, half a percent of the world electricity consumption, if that, and an even smaller fraction of the total energy?

by asats

7/26/2026 at 9:19:24 PM

Because GPUs grow on trees...

> TSMC’s manufacturing success comes at an ecological cost. The company accounts for around 150,000 tonnes of water per day and 6.4% of the national electricity consumption.

https://taiwaninsight.org/2025/11/05/water-nexus-can-semicon...

by netsharc

7/26/2026 at 8:25:17 PM

Growth trend matters more than absolute present value.

Data centres generally had been seeing energy use growing at 12% annually, or with a doubling time of 5.8 years (about 5 years 10 months). AI is accelerating that trend.

In the United States, power consumption by data centres is on course to account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030. Driven by AI use, the US economy is set to consume more electricity in 2030 for processing data than for manufacturing all energy-intensive goods combined, including aluminium, steel, cement and chemicals. In advanced economies more broadly, data centres are projected to drive more than 20% of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030, putting the power sector in those economies back on a growth footing after years of stagnating or declining demand in many of them.

<https://www.iea.org/news/ai-is-set-to-drive-surging-electric...>

by dredmorbius

7/26/2026 at 9:03:09 PM

>or with a doubling time of 5.8 years

So that in ~6 years they will account for 1%, and still a fraction of the percent of the world total energy use?

by asats

7/26/2026 at 9:18:30 PM

Modulo, as noted, AI is accelerating that trend.

by dredmorbius

7/26/2026 at 7:47:25 PM

DC water consumption is a red herring. That water is returned back to its source but warmer.

by inigyou

7/26/2026 at 8:04:16 PM

If you think that every data center is now a closed loop system enjoy your propaganda.

Colossus 1 and 2 still use open loop systems. And with the case of blow down water that's "returned" it's not usable due to the use of concentrated salts (1,200 to 6,000 mg/L).

In your mind this is a closed loop system of clean water. It is not. And as DCs have less and less discharge there is more and more solid waste produced.

Your assertion that "water consumption is a red herring" is utter bull shit. I'd suggest enlightening yourself [0][1][2][3].

[0] https://genesiswatertech.com/blog-post/advanced-blowdown-tre... [1] https://fieldreport.caes.uga.edu/publications/TP121/how-data... [2] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.21760 [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/science/articles/epa-writing-perm...

by windexh8er

7/26/2026 at 8:57:04 PM

<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48055532>

by dredmorbius

7/26/2026 at 9:09:32 PM

Very interesting how your enlightening comments about dirty AI data centers are being downvoted. Pro-Musk, pro-AI bots and shills trying to keep the smoke screen going?

by froggy

7/26/2026 at 9:04:21 PM

Yes, but they _could_ be a closed loop system if governments demanded it. And they should.

The could, and should generate their own electricity as well. And perhaps even provide free power to the surrounding neighborhood to make up for the noise and inconvenience of having one nearby.

by jay_kyburz

7/26/2026 at 8:58:34 PM

Yes, just like cow farts.

by CGMthrowaway

7/26/2026 at 8:20:45 PM

Due to the widespread idea that climate prediction has been predicting doom and gloom all the time, and has always been wrong about it, I have been entertaining myself by revisiting old climate predictions from 20 years ago. I can highly recommend it.

I mean, predicting the climate must be one of the hardest numerical simulations you can run. Climate models are famously incomplete. But the results turned out to be way more accurate than I would have thought. That's some impressive modeling, and I would assume that models have only improved since then.

The most chilling thing (and not in a good way) about it is that popular science type repotrs for the general public usually indicate an interval between a good case and a bad case, with a nice line in between. In retrospect we have been pretty much perfectly tracking the bad case line ever since.

by xorcist

7/26/2026 at 8:43:23 PM

This sounds neat...I'd love to do it as well. Any past predictions vs current conditions tools or datasets that you're using?

by dlx

7/26/2026 at 8:39:49 PM

Interesting. Do you mind sharing some of the predictions you have been revisiting?

by baxtr

7/26/2026 at 8:32:18 PM

Once I listened to a podcast about the holodomor, a famine caused by Stalin and affected Ukrainians mostly. In the end they were forced to eat their children as they were so desperate for food. The suffering was untold, but real, it happened, and that kind of thing can and will happen again if we're not extra extra careful.

We're pushing ourselves into absolutely untold suffering the longer do nothing. I truly fear a famine like that and the more we go down this road, the closer we're getting.

Obviously its too late to avoid the worst, the only hope we have is to collectively cooperate to help each other get through it. Not sure that will happen but I believe that's the only way through.

by bamboozled

7/26/2026 at 7:10:10 PM

I've seen dozens of videos and articles about this strongest ever event. And I still have no clue if the next year I should evacuate from Paris for the summer because heatwaves may be even crazier than this year, or prolonged heavy rains are more likely and can make the city more livable.

by buybackoff

7/26/2026 at 7:40:10 PM

Given what I learned from "chaos" by James Gleick, the predicament we're in is that we likely cannot predict outcomes or the events themselves, rather what we know is that weather will become more unpredictable and more extreme.

So the answer to your question is it could be either or both or neither. Whatever happens is going to be on average more extreme than what you're used to.

by azeirah

7/26/2026 at 7:59:40 PM

It might end up like a covid situation where even if you have good AC in your home, you don't want to be in the area because the medical system is on its knees overwhelmed from treating all the cases of heat related illnesses.

by asdff

7/26/2026 at 8:40:34 PM

And AC won’t work if the grid can’t handle it (at least, not unless you do a lot of additional preparation).

by tshaddox

7/26/2026 at 9:25:33 PM

The first chapter of "Ministy for the Future" used to be available for free online, and depicts such a scenario in a fictional Indian region...

by netsharc

7/26/2026 at 7:53:39 PM

I would bet on it becoming hotter for longer, with some really bad but short torrential rain in between.

So get some sturdy shade structure and an heat pump.

by SiempreViernes

7/26/2026 at 7:48:11 PM

Water vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect so I don't think rain is going to make it better.

by measurablefunc

7/26/2026 at 8:04:34 PM

I've got an excellent overview of consequences from Claude Opus 5. I'd post it here but there's a "no AI content" policy, so sorry, you need to ask yourself. (Though for Europe specifically, apparently very little except for higher average temperatures).

by throw310822

7/26/2026 at 8:23:24 PM

No offense, but using air travel to avoid climate impacts is a bit ironic and part of the reason we’re in this mess.

No need to fix the root cause, I’ll just fly somewhere cold during the summer /s

by ceroxylon

7/26/2026 at 9:09:38 PM

It's funny that I said "evacuate" and did not mention air travel. In that part of the world, trains are the default, with nuclear green power powering the majority of consumers. Maybe that other default is a problem. And yes, bien sûr, an abandoned personal flight or train will counter balance China, India or mega leaks of methane in US. And all AC owners must be incarcerated, it's so worse than a car. A new leftist mayor of Paris even said ACs warm up neighbors' places, should be forbidden obviously...

by buybackoff

7/26/2026 at 9:01:53 PM

We all know we’re way past the time where we need to cut the carbon emissions, like it was 30 years ago. Why aren’t the governments investing money on research on carbon capture technology? That’s the only way left to undo massive carbon emissions due to industrialisation

by sajithdilshan

7/26/2026 at 9:07:16 PM

"Wait, do you mean I should pay to capture the carbon my neighbors emits? No way!"

That's why.

Edit: Also, as some other comment said, thermodynamics tell us that it would take an inordinate amount of energy to bring carbon back to safe levels. More than what we get from burning oil. It's about entropy and all that. So there's that.

by sdeframond

7/26/2026 at 8:51:16 PM

Other than "numbers go up" it's unclear to me what the consequences are, as I'm not extremely familiar with El Niño events. Hurricanes, maybe?

by thisisnotauser

7/26/2026 at 9:00:52 PM

US NOAA has a (still generally useful) list of links to various impacts:

<https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/impacts-of-el-nino>

Those include: hydrology (floods, drought), sea-surface temperatures (hotter or cooler, both of which impact local ecologies and fisheries), storms (weaker hurricane season in the Atlantic, due to high-altitude wind shear, stronger in other areas), and others: economic, fisheries, military, human health, marine life, and specific regional impacts.

by dredmorbius

7/26/2026 at 7:45:55 PM

Wow, this thing should be nicknamed "El Hombre"

by mjsweet

7/26/2026 at 8:26:01 PM

The weather in Japan has been completely wack I can tell you that. The rainy season is never ending in central and north Japan. It was actually declared over but it's back again. Never seen that before.

by bamboozled

7/26/2026 at 8:54:43 PM

I wrote to Alan Kay over 8 years ago about my fears of global warming and how tech seems to dismiss it as a concern on the whole.

A little known fact about Alan Kay is 17 years ago he was part of a group of "systems people" who published for the NFS about various systems including the climate. He helped write "Transitions and Tipping Points in Complex Environmental Systems" (https://nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/2022-12/Transitions-and-ti...). He wrote to me that "This, along with many other warnings from many other sources over many years, fell on deaf or disbelieving ears."

He agreed with my concern saying "And, yes, you are right that things will likely be really bad if the climate is allowed to crash past the tipping point."

But what he said following that shook me to my core. Kay said "If you think of a system as an upside-down coca cola bottle, it is easy to see that a little nudge can topple it, whereas considerably more energy is then required to put it back.".

What this means is to get CO2 back down to 350 ppm (we are at 428 ppm), we would need to expend more energy than we did getting it to 450 ppm. That means, we would have to expend more energy than humans have produced IN ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY in the next 10-20 years (30,000-45,000 EJ range) just to put the system back to where it's safe.

Ask yourself, where are we spending our energy right now as a species? On putting the system to a safe level or something else?

Do we even have the capability to do it? As we continue to expand our industrial capacity, we also use non-renewable resources like oil and metals we can't recycle. As we exploit them, we degrade our industrial capacity for the future. For a deeper analysis read Limits to Growth and work related to it.

by mempko

7/26/2026 at 6:55:51 PM

by karakoram

7/26/2026 at 7:03:01 PM

Does this mean California is more likely to get mega flooding?

by SubiculumCode

7/26/2026 at 9:14:15 PM

"El Niño, California Precipitation, and Landslides" <https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/landslides/el-nino>

El Niño is the “warm phase” of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and features warmer than average ocean surface temperatures off the coast of Ecuador and Peru in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean.... Historically, the presence of El Niño conditions tilts the odds in favor of wetter than normal precipitation across the southern third of the state. The relationship between El Niño and cool season precipitation is weaker in the central and northern parts of the state.

Flooding is possible, particularly if dams exceed capacity, perhaps exacerbated by earlier snowmelt and peak runoff. Landslides are a more widespread, and less manageable problem, particularly as loose-material slopes are waterlogged. The deluge -> high growth -> heavy fuel load -> large wildfire -> landslide cycle is one that's become fairly well-known in California.

Levee failures within the Sacramento Delta or Central Valley could result in very large-scale flooding, affecting agriculture or communities.

The San Francisco Bay Area may see "king tides" and general flooding throughout the bay and delta region, particularly during December and January, and all the more so if high tides coincide with heavy river run-off. Remember that the entire Central Valley of California, nearly 500 miles long north-to-south, drains out through the Bay. Prevailing winds may create a wind setup or seiche which can result in flooding along a some but not all shorelines, or alternating across a body of water.

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_setup>

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiche>

by dredmorbius

7/26/2026 at 7:13:42 PM

Yes, atmospheric rivers all winter.

Next year a super bloom then the following year massive wild fires.

rain -> fuel -> fire

by chewbacha

7/26/2026 at 8:04:15 PM

Most of the most flood prone areas in CA have been significantly neutered over the decades thanks to massive water projects. There was a time when the LA river would destroy LA routinely. Now everything is channelized. At risk communities are probably the handful of remote ones that do not have great infrastructure, but I'm not even sure where those might be given how the state seems to be able to build thousands of debris flow cement storm drain setups in relevant areas.

Other states seem a lot worse off. Water table is closer to where people live, there's a lack of topology to actually run water out in a lot of cases, there's been little investment in managing water for stormwater for property damage abatement or power or irrigation like in CA where the topology really incentivized massive investment in all of that over the last century.

by asdff

7/26/2026 at 7:13:02 PM

We haven't had any significant flooding in past El Niños. Of course, it will probably be different this round, but at least El Niños tend to align with Mediterranean weather instead of droughts and wildfires.

We also have one of the more advanced waterwork system in the US to support Central Valley agriculture, so a lot of the worst aspects can be somewhat managed.

It's bad that such dramatic climate change is happening, but we're definetly lucky to live in the West Coast because we won't face the brunt of some of the worst aspects of the El Niño comparatively and have the infrastructure to deal with it.

Sadly, the brunt of climate change will be felt by the poorer half of the world.

by alephnerd

7/26/2026 at 7:20:39 PM

The costliest floods in state history were in the winter 1994-1995 which was a weak El Niño year.

by jeffbee

7/26/2026 at 7:26:47 PM

True, but a lot of that was due to a lack of integrated water management (IWM) in California at the time, and led to significant reforms as well as infra expansion to prevent that from happening again.

The Lima Prieta Quake and the 1990s floods led to a lot of future proofing in Californian infra. The last major thing left is transmission weathering, which PGE and Sac are fighting over.

Also, most of our infra is state funded which gives us a lot of leeway.

Like I said before, it's bad that we're in this position and it's only going to get worse, but we're in one of the better places that can survive these kinds of shifts.

by alephnerd

7/26/2026 at 6:50:10 PM

I for one am impressed we get couple months of warning before it happens

by NooneAtAll3

7/26/2026 at 6:59:09 PM

It's a massive oscillating system (millions of square miles), so we have plenty of lead time. It's easy to measure and watch evolve.

by echelon

7/26/2026 at 7:23:05 PM

Another thing AI makes worse because of all the energy consumption.

I hope we have something more to show than dozens of to-do apps when our children and grandchildren ask which important things made the massive use of AI necessary.

by croes

7/26/2026 at 8:19:35 PM

Even if we don't do anything about emissions and climate change picks up, lives in 2126 will be unmistakably better than ours in all dimensions that matter.

by simianwords

7/26/2026 at 9:12:22 PM

can you show us the world model that predicts this outcome? which variables does it take into account?

by polotics

7/26/2026 at 8:38:04 PM

If you're a single-celled creature living near the Arctic.

by TheOtherHobbes

7/26/2026 at 8:54:38 PM

this is propaganda

by simianwords

7/26/2026 at 9:21:07 PM

This is propaganda

by queenkjuul

7/26/2026 at 8:37:02 PM

I really believe this is corporate propaganda. "Don't worry, we have the solutions".

You don't.

by bamboozled

7/26/2026 at 8:54:10 PM

Life expectancy, HDI, education, incomes would all increase. Verify with google/LLM.

by simianwords

7/26/2026 at 9:25:48 PM

I tried verifying with google/LLM.

> Venus is similar in structure and size to Earth, and is sometimes called Earth's evil twin. Its thick atmosphere traps heat in a runaway greenhouse effect, making it the hottest planet in our solar system with surface temperatures hot enough to melt lead — about 872 degrees Fahrenheit (467 Celsius).

No word on HDI/education/incomes at those temperatures though

by jddj

7/26/2026 at 9:15:39 PM

oh you looked up 2126 on the Google did you? can you explain this verification process a bit more maybe? is it based on world3? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3

by polotics

7/26/2026 at 9:21:54 PM

Claude is a fortune teller now?

by queenkjuul

7/26/2026 at 6:59:24 PM

[flagged]

by zuzululu

7/26/2026 at 7:02:17 PM

all of it

and because we've been doomed since the 70s

by inigyou

7/26/2026 at 7:08:03 PM

but if you keep declaring a time clock every decade only to reset it for the past 50 years, does it not weaken the point of it ? we should've had an apocalypse by now, we haven't and unlikely to so for quite some time.

why are we so eager and unquestioning of the published narratives going to the length of censoring counter theories?

by zuzululu

7/26/2026 at 9:09:29 PM

Like an alcoholic saying drinking isn’t bad because he’s been drinking since his twenties and still hasn’t got cirrhosis

By the time it’s an issue it’s too late.

by simmerup

7/26/2026 at 7:12:16 PM

Yeah the clock turned out to be silly, but if you interpret it as risk level instead of time, it makes sense. Since the 70s we have been at a near-100% chance this would happen.

by inigyou

7/26/2026 at 6:47:40 PM

[flagged]

by giardini

7/26/2026 at 7:19:23 PM

You don't seem to understand how this works. El Niño is one half of a 2 part cycle. You don’t get permanent hurricane reduction.

by chomp

7/26/2026 at 7:29:23 PM

If/when the temperature differential between equator and pole decreases because of a warming arctic, we actually do get a permanent reduction in hurricane propensity and destructiveness.

Not everything gets worse if the planet heats up a little more.

by tjwebbnorfolk

7/26/2026 at 9:23:22 PM

Miami will be safe from hurricanes in its new underwater locale

by queenkjuul

7/26/2026 at 6:58:13 PM

Do you know if this balances out to a lower death count than the heatwave would have, or just better for people in that area? Even thinking just about the US south I'd imagine heat is a bigger risk than hurricanes

by e_i_pi_2

7/26/2026 at 7:11:46 PM

Let’s see…: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o...

> widespread drought and famine in multiple countries, causing the death of more than 50 million people. Disasters associated with it include the Great Famine of 1876–1878 in India, the Grande Seca in Brazil, and the Northern Chinese Famine of 1876–1879.

by jameshart

7/26/2026 at 7:45:43 PM

Let me guess, you think solar panels are chinese spying machines.

by henry2023

7/26/2026 at 6:56:24 PM

And, soon, brand new, never before seen waterfront property! Invest now so your children can enjoy sand where St. Augustine grass once flourished. \s

by tired-turtle

7/26/2026 at 7:00:29 PM

It’s the down hill house racing contest this winter that you want to pay attention to. Be sure to take precautions.

by zippyman55

7/26/2026 at 7:32:09 PM

Maybe Trump can tariff it? That should solve the problem.

by 1over137

7/26/2026 at 8:28:16 PM

Come on, Trump would never "tarrif" something called "El Nino".

He would first deport it a couple times.

by phtrivier

7/26/2026 at 8:37:38 PM

He'd grab it's pussy first.

by bamboozled

7/26/2026 at 9:16:49 PM

[dead]

by pointer_pointer

7/26/2026 at 9:13:14 PM

[dead]

by pointer_pointer

7/26/2026 at 7:37:37 PM

[flagged]

by clemailacct1

7/26/2026 at 8:33:53 PM

You have a point about it not being necessary to invoke his name here but any use of TDS just shows you are in a different reality.

by DangitBobby

7/26/2026 at 8:02:59 PM

are you arguing with a joke?

by KaiserPro

7/26/2026 at 7:33:52 PM

If you give any regularly-occurring event that varies in intensity enough time, it is guaranteed to break the records of its previous intensities.

by tjwebbnorfolk

7/26/2026 at 7:39:34 PM

Yeah like earthquakes, the top registered earthquake happened 66 years ago.

The fact that you see record breaking more often than log of time implies a drift in one direction.

by henry2023

7/26/2026 at 9:10:48 PM

And it varies in intensity because human activity is putting more energy into the system

by simmerup

7/26/2026 at 9:15:51 PM

It varies in intensity because it always has.

by tjwebbnorfolk

7/26/2026 at 8:11:58 PM

[dead]

by jmye