7/1/2026 at 5:19:44 AM
The overriding impression I get is that the whole facility is complicated. There are lots of processes in place, and lots of very trained people required to keep it all running. The size and complexity of the control rooms for example, but also the inevitable maintenance and inspection of all the piping etc. Even the details of the cleanup (checking each store foot, grinding surfaces etc.)I've recently been on a train in Europe and I saw solar panels and wind turbines everywhere. And what's striking by comparison is the lack of people or extraneous construction. They're just solar panels, or wind turbines. They're easy to install, easy (read cheap) to maintain, and are mostly just left alone to do their thing.
If I had a $100b to invest then solar, wind, even battery, is much more attractive than the time, complexity, uncertainty, running cost etc of nuclear. Not to even start on cleanup issues.
I get the base-load issue. But even there current storage is more attractive. And investing in future storage technology seems like a better return.
The argument against nuclear (fission, and even more so fusion) is purely financial. We can nimby and worry about the radiation but ultimately nuclear doesn't happen because financially its a dead end.
by bruce511
7/1/2026 at 7:58:57 AM
Base load is one of those terms that nuclear power proponents love because it turns a negative in a positive. Nuclear plants are very expensive to turn off and on. Nuclear plants leave you no choice but to leave them running 24x7, even when power that is an order of magnitude cheaper is available most of the time. Proponents call this base load. But technically it's just very expensive power that you can't turn off when it's completely redundant.Flexible load is where the action is these days because renewables sometimes push energy prices into the negative whenever there's too much of it. Having to expend fuel during such times is a negative thing.
The big benefit gas plants have over coal and nuclear plants is that you can turn them off and on quicker. So you don't have to run them 24x7. Newer coal plants are similarly cheaper to use for backup power generation. A common mistake with assumptions about Chinese coal plants is that yes they build lots of them. And no, they mostly aren't running a lot. Their coal use actually is starting to decline. The new plants are more flexible and they use them to replace the older ones.
Renewables are plenty and cheaper most of the time. Batteries can deal with short term fluctuations and help time shift renewable power to cover peak loads in the morning and evenings.
And if you can bring online some gas/coal power when it's actually needed, there is no need for base load.
In practice this is still quite often but not most of the time and gradually declining. With dirt cheap renewables + batteries coming online by the hundreds of gw per year, the ability to turn the rest off is the most important feature with backup power generation.
Nuclear plants remain stupidly expensive and lack this feature.
by jillesvangurp
7/1/2026 at 12:29:56 PM
Civilian nuclear plants can be easily regulated between 50% - 100% of maximal output, with power gradients of up to 2% / min. (Submarine nuclear reactors are designed for even faster gradients). In France, because nuclear power plants are the dominating source of electricity, nuclear power plants have to ramp up and down the output on daily basis.https://snetp.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/SNETP-Factsheet-...
When possible you want to run nuclear power plant at 100%, because there are almost no savings in operating costs (because nuclear fuel is so cheap) in comparison to a nuclear power plant running at 50%.
The current Chinese electricity strategy is to minimize the costs of electricity, get as much electricity from hydro, wind, solar as cheaply possible and fill the rest with cheap coal power. China currently doesn't use batteries for renewables backup in any significant amount (in comparison the size of the Chinese electricity grid).
China currently doesn't have access to cheap natural gas, in contrast to US. The amount of electricity produced from natural gas is very small in China.
https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/china
Nuclear power in China is still very small, in comparison with coal power.
Will China build more and more renewables? Yes, but only if the costs of the whole electricity mix will stay low. They will not overbuild renewables. They will not build very large amounts of battery storage, if coal power will be cheaper.
by leonidasrup
7/1/2026 at 10:11:14 PM
China's coal use alone is more than all energy sources in the USA combined. Something like 70% of all energy, then oil, then about 10% renewable. USA is also near 90% fossil fuel but morally natural gas and oil, coal on the way out while China still opening gigawatts of plants yearly.by coryrc
7/1/2026 at 11:39:35 AM
> Nuclear plants remain stupidly expensive and lack this feature.Combining nuclear with some secondary application that can run only at energy surplus times, such as desalination or pumped hydro, might help with the economics.
Desalination and pumping desalinated seawater through long distances might actually be a nice idea to reduce desertification or to increase agricultural output.
by rbanffy
7/1/2026 at 12:37:24 PM
Nuclear powered desalination was demonstrated using BN-350 reactor.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BN-350_reactor
The question is always: costs. In the Middle East and North Africa dominating source of power for desalination is natural gas.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/energy-consum...
by leonidasrup
7/2/2026 at 6:53:37 AM
Cost of the energy input is less important if it uses the energy surplus the grid isn’t paying for.by rbanffy
7/2/2026 at 7:13:17 PM
That would require an energy market with spot prices that incentivize the buildout.by thijson
7/1/2026 at 12:31:59 PM
this gets repeated over and over again but its false:> Nuclear power plants are routinely used in load following mode on a large scale in France, although "it is generally accepted that this is not an ideal economic situation for nuclear stations".[42] Unit A at the now decommissioned German Biblis Nuclear Power Plant was designed to modulate its output 15% per minute between 40% and 100% of its nominal power.
from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_plant#Flexibilit...
by _visgean
7/1/2026 at 6:27:19 PM
"Base load is one of those terms that nuclear power proponents love because it turns a negative in a positive."I love how anti-nuclear types argue against such a basic concept as base load just because it helps THEIR argument. Base load is simply the lowest wattage the grid needs in a time period and does vary a lot but NEVER goes to zero. Wind and solar are a very poor fit for this due to their variability. Batteries can help but are expensive and wind and solar variability is offset using gas turbines.
Data centers always want to run 24/7 and significantly increase base load, which is why the big hyperscalers are all making deals for nuclear power. A nuclear reactor generating power for a data center that needs its entire output 100% of the time is an ideal scenario.
by UltraSane
7/2/2026 at 10:36:34 AM
batteries are expensive? relative to what?by garbagewoman
7/2/2026 at 5:07:23 PM
To natural gas turbinesby UltraSane
7/1/2026 at 1:09:26 PM
If you think nuclear facilities are complicate I would suggest to look into facilities used to manufacture polycrystalline silicon for solar panels, or facilities for manufacturing gas turbines used in gas power plants.Nuclear industry is running with very high quality standards, this requires very good training, good maintenance. In this aspects, nuclear industry is similar to aircraft industry.
Solar panels are cheap to install, wind turbines are not so cheap to install.
Solar panels are cheap to maintain. Maintenance of offshore wind turbines is very expensive, therefor offshore wind turbines are more expensive, build with higher quality, than onshore wind turbines - so they require less frequent maintenance.
I assume you are from US. The big difference between US and Europe energy landscape is the cost of natural gas, Europe pays 4-5x higher prices for natural gas then US. When solar power don't supply electricity (at night or under cloud cover) and wind has slow speeds (can happen for multiple weeks) some countries from Europe can use hydro-power (Norway, Austria, Switzerland), some countries can burn coal (Poland, Germany), but most European countries have to burn very expensive gas.
The biggest source of electricity in Europe in the year 2025 was natural gas.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-prod-source-s...
by leonidasrup
7/1/2026 at 2:10:02 PM
>If you think nuclear facilities are complicate I would suggest to look into facilities used to manufacture polycrystalline silicon for solar panels, or facilities for manufacturing gas turbines used in gas power plants.That's an unfair comparison. We are talking about operational costs, not capital costs. A fair comparison would include nuclear's capital costs, which don't do it any favors - nuclear plants also need fancy turbine blades.
Not that I'm against nuclear, I think we're completely mad to be still burning (burning! so primitive!) ancient plants, coming up on a century after Magic Energy Rocks were discovered. "Cost" is a fickle metric when so many costs are externalized in both space and time - nobody cares if the effects of pollution are felt years down the line, thousands of miles away.
But it's funny that governments throw wildly generous subsidies and special legal treatment at domestic food production, correctly perceiving cheap reliable food as upstream of a functioning society, yet fail to similarly "overinvest" in energy sources for machines as well as humans. I hazard that most of the European countries that depended heavily on Russian gas would not have been so blase if their population had been subsisting off Russian food imports.
We should be building out tremendous energy capacity using every conceivable technology available. Any country that does this is virtually guaranteed wealth, for energy is fungible with almost everything else. The equation is so obvious that failure to do so implies regulatory capture by entrenched energy interests. "Too cheap to meter" belongs in the same rhetorical bucket as "Perfect sound forever" - a promise that was retracted as soon as it became clear that scarcity was more profitable than abundance.
by dTal
7/1/2026 at 3:11:14 PM
I thought you talked about the impression of solar energy being simple and nuclear energy being, in comparison with solar, complicated.Solar power, wind power, hydro power, nuclear power are all heavy on capital costs and light on operational costs. The capital costs to build a nuclear power plant are about the same as the total operational costs of the nuclear power plant over it's entire lifetime (60 - 80 year).
The turbine blades for a water cooled nuclear power plant are similar technology to turbine blades in coal power plant. (Newest coal power plant turbines are even more demanding, because the newest coal power plant utilize ultra-supercritical steam cycles, with temperatures and pressures much higher than conventional nuclear power plants). Turbine blades for turbines in gas power plants, operating at even higher temperatures than coal power plants, are examples of the most advanced metallurgy.
https://www.gem.wiki/Coal_power_technologies
We are burning ancient organism, with every year increasing amounts.
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions
Because most of the worlds population lives with lot less energy than developed countries, we can assume that total energy demand will increase a lot in future.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-stacked
"Cost" is only one metric, but many other many externalized costs connected to energy generation are hard to quantify and compare. Like impacts of nickel mining in Indonesia, lithium extraction in Chile, rare earth refining in China.
"In 2024, nickel mining and processing was one of the main causes of deforestation in Indonesia"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel_mining_in_Indonesia
https://ttfpower.com/chiles-lithium-mine-powering-the-future...
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/business/china-rare-earth...
by leonidasrup
7/1/2026 at 3:55:11 PM
>> Solar power, wind power, hydro power, nuclear power are all heavy on capital costs and light on operational costsI'm not sure I agree. Firstly, I can get solar panels without building a solar panel factory. Hence the capital cost of a solar farm is cheap. I can't buy a nuclear power plant off the shelf.
Equally on the running cost, solar costs pretty much nothing to run. I'd argue that the costs to run a nuclear plant are substantial. Plus I need highly skilled people on-site permanently. With solar I need skilled people to install (skills easily taught) but I don't need permanent engineers on site.
by bruce511
7/1/2026 at 5:15:53 PM
How much of your yearly electricity amount can you get from the installed solar panels?How much do you need get from electric grid, from non-solar power plants?
Try to scale this to a whole country.
by leonidasrup
7/1/2026 at 7:21:05 PM
Currently I generate about 66% of my annual power requirements with solar alone. If I had even a small 10kw battery I'd be moving that closer to 80%.But demand for base load is irrelevant to my thesis. My point is that financially it makes no sense. So private capital aren't interested. [1]
So that leaves govt. They could decide (especially in regulated markets) to ignore Financials and build it anyway. Which is great, except govts are typically really bad at large capital projects that span multiple administrations.
[1] private capital cam get involved if the govt signs guaranteed income contracts. It's a model that puts the bad Financials on the govt (hence the people) while the govt avoids the pain of building. This model typically works as well as you might suspect.
Ultimately what we (the customer) want or need is irrelevant. The real world revolves around the money. And the only way to make the money work is to make the customer pay a lot.
The base-load question is solved with better, cheaper, storage. Not expensive power stations.
by bruce511
7/2/2026 at 8:49:58 AM
You would still need and have to pay for an electric grid for the rest 20% of your electric demand. How much would it cost to go to 100% solar+battery?Governments can't ignore Financials, because in the end all money is just a payment for human labor and physical materials needed to realize a project. Successful governments do invest in long term infrastructure, like highways, bridges, hydro dams, but they have pay for this project by taxes, or they can borrow money from private investors and pay the investors with future taxes.
See for example the financing of The Hoover Dam:
"Hoover Dam was built for a cost of $49 million (approximately $1 billion adjusted for inflation). The power plant and generators cost an additional $71 million, more than the cost of the dam itself. The sale of electrical power generated by the dam paid back its construction cost, with interest, by 1987."
https://hoover.archives.gov/hoovers/hoover-dam
There are many places (mostly sunny and dry places) in the world where solar+battery can supply large part of electricity demand for 100$/MWh. Is this cheap? Yes, if you compete with European electricity prices, not when you compete with Chinese electricity prices (88$ / MWh).
https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e...
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-industrial-power-...
Will China invest in large amounts of battery storage, or will it rely on cheap coal power to complement solar power? They do invest a lot in hydro power, which can be seen as energy storage. India and Bangladesh are quite unhappy with this development.
https://www.abc.net.au/asia/china-plans-to-build-world-large...
by leonidasrup
7/1/2026 at 4:25:04 PM
> I can't buy a nuclear power plant off the shelf.China will build it for you, and has. Not OTS, but still something you write a check and a spec for, and you get it made.
by IAmBroom
7/1/2026 at 3:21:14 PM
Some of the externalized costs are quite political sensitivehttps://www.csis.org/analysis/dark-spot-solar-energy-industr...
https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/blog/solar-companies-linked-to-...
by leonidasrup
7/1/2026 at 8:30:39 PM
My hope was that we could get SMRs in play to replace every coal power plant's furnace with a couple SMRs to leverage the existing infra (turbine/generator/grid hookup) and stop burning coal. Now.I know the numbers aren't the best for SMRs as far as efficiency or LCOE, but it would give us baseline power and an ability to cut away from fossil fuels for the grid much faster than building bespoke plants (which have a horrible record in the US).
by pstuart