6/22/2026 at 3:43:31 PM
The current natural gas price in West Texas (the WaHa hub, north of Coyanosa, TX) is negative. And has been for a while. The price peaked (dipped?) to -$9/MCF a couple months ago. That means gas producers had to pay $9 per MCF for it to be taken away. Oil in the Permian comes with gas, a lot of it, so to produce oil, you need to get rid of gas. Wells I'm familiar with have 4000-5000 cubic feet of gas per barrel of oil. Recall in oilfield M = thousand, so that's 4-5 MCF per bbl of oil.There is no free gas pipeline capacity to get gas out of West Texas. Any time new pipelines are built, they are filled within months.
This makes a ton of sense for oil producers (which are also gas producers) who can sell their gas for less of a loss (potentially a profit!) and also for MSFT who can lock in long term contracts for minimal cost. I'd guess these contracts are for $1-2/MCF which is win/win for the oil companies in the area and MSFT.
by auspiv
6/22/2026 at 4:27:17 PM
This might make sense for oil producers to get rid of their natural gas, which is nearly a waste material, but I'm struggling to understand how it makes sense for Microsoft. Despite the cheap natural gas, and an abundance of investors and builders with natural gas expertise, in the competitive electricity generation market everybody is deploying solar and batteries in west Texas because it's still more profitable than gas generation.Further, there's a gas turbine shortage so Microsoft choosing to put their (presumably limited) allocation of gas turbines in West Texas, where they have good alternatives, seems a bit mysterious. Why not save that massive amount of turbines for the northeast DCs, where renewables work far poorer yet gas is more reliable?
The reasons that seem most convincing to me:
1. Political environment is hostile to renewables and Microsoft doesn't want to paint a target on their back by choosing solar plus batteries, the choice others are making in West Texas.
2. Grid connection drastically changes economics, but pipelines for gas are cheap or something, so the massive cost and delay from grid interconnection simply isn't worth it
3. There are particular political favors going on with Chevron, e.g. Chevron wants gas in the area and is willing to increase MS's turbine allocation if they do it in west Texas, or Chevron is helping get around pesky local political approvals for data centers, or something like that.
The cost of gas does not seem like a justification for this, though.
by epistasis
6/22/2026 at 6:30:22 PM
They will also want reliable power, which seems like justification enough to keep their options open. A “phased, modular approach” sounds like it would give them options. Maybe Microsoft could install solar and/or batteries later and use their natural gas turbines for backup?With enough batteries they might get through the night, but seasonal shortages are much harder to handle that way.
I bet a carbon tax on data centers would be popular if the Democrats get back in.
by skybrian
6/22/2026 at 9:48:44 PM
You can generally solve seasonal shortfalls cheaply by simply adding more solar / wind until you no longer have a seasonal shortfall just a massive surplus in a different part of the year.Put another way if you want to store power say 1GWh for the worst month, well a solar panel provides a lot of power over even the worst month. 20MW of solar panel averaging even 40MWh/day * 30 days = 1.2GWh and cost way less than 1GWh of batteries.
Near the arctic circle Wind fill the same niche.
by Retric
6/23/2026 at 12:07:51 AM
> Near the arctic circle Wind fill the same niche.What do you mean? Long periods of calm weather during cold temperatures is not unheard of in Finland and does cause issues at times due to amount of wind energy that has been built in recent times.
by buzer
6/23/2026 at 12:48:30 AM
Long periods of low output isn’t 0 energy output over a ~3 month long winter.Beyond that wind for each location is somewhat seasonal so if you’re doing this for winter energy you pick areas with better wind in winter.
by Retric
6/23/2026 at 3:16:43 AM
Not 3 month period, but looking at e.g. capacity factor over 5 day period can be under 3% and even 10 day period can be under 5%. Capacity factor for whole year is around 30% (22TWh produced with 9433MW in 2025, rounded it up since some capacity came online during 2025). That's a lot of extra power or storage.by buzer
6/23/2026 at 3:58:30 AM
We’re optimizing for cost here, nothing else matters. You can always turn off a wind turbine.If you’re proposing seasonal storage as a viable option then cutting total storage needs by 90% (to handle a 10 day lull vs 90 day gap) is inherently cheaper.
Hell traditional hydro is well suited for such situations as annual output and storage is limited but nontrivial. Doubling output for 10 days isn’t nearly as problematic as trying to cover a 90 day shortfall.
by Retric
6/23/2026 at 11:20:53 AM
You can't replace batteries with more solar, additional solar only increases the energy produced while the sun is out.That can help on overcast days, or the middle of winter when days are shorter, but you still need battery capacity to run for stretches when there is no sun producing energy.
For residential its often recommended to have 3 days of storage capacity + the option for a backup generator. I'm not sure what the recommendation is for industrial projects, but I expect they would still need a backup generator. If they already have to put in a generator to handle the full load of the server farm, and they have cheap local gas, why bother with the solar? At a minimum you have both, but the generator (or power from a contracted gap generator) is a given.
by _heimdall
6/23/2026 at 2:01:27 PM
Nightly storage is cost effective because you use it 365 times a year. Seasonal storage is solving a different problem.by Retric
6/23/2026 at 2:28:49 PM
Nightly storage depends on being able to recharge to full capacity every day. That isn't a risk they could possibly accept, they would have to have an alternative source that could sustain when the sun doesn't come out or equipment fails.by _heimdall
6/23/2026 at 4:07:37 PM
> to full capacity every day.A common misconception you don’t need to hit 100%, you need enough energy to make it either from that day or from prior days.
At grid scale daily production is never 0 and it’s never 100%. You can guarantee a surplus all 365 days a year, it’s just a cost vs benefit function, that’s however different from always fully charging your energy storage. If hypothetically the minimum was 99.9% of nighttime needs the odds you cover that gap the next day is extremely high to the point where a little extra storage makes sense vs aiming for 100% every day.
So now you’re just trying to optimize something for minimum cost. Utilities do this all the time with traditional generation you have random equipment failures and shifting seasonal demand. Thus they optimize maintenance schedules around seasonal demand etc.
by Retric
6/23/2026 at 10:19:17 PM
Not a misconception, just a discrepancy in what we were describing. I well understand that you shouldn't hit 0% for battery health and that the last 10-20% charge takes much longer than the middle of the charge cycle. I was responding to the idea of only having capacity for a night and using it 365 days per year, I took that to mean a full charge/discharge cycle every day since otherwise you have more capacity than a single night and don't use it fully every day.Regardless, that buffer doesn't make a big difference in the topic here. My panel regularly show 0Wh on rainy days, PR effectively 0 as they may be getting only a few percent of real capacity.
How do you propose industrial scale would allow a series of arrays could both not be oversized on sunny days and cover usage on cludy days?
If I'm misunderstanding your argument I apologize. I just don't see how a data center could possibly be okay with having only a single day worth of storage and generation without having backup power scaled to cover their full usage demands.
by _heimdall
6/23/2026 at 11:14:38 PM
Edit: Grid scale solar is its own thing for many reasons, one of which is not sticking things in a roof tends to dramatically lower risks and costs. But another is they are significantly more optimized.> could both not be oversized on sunny days and cover usage on cludy days?
That isn’t a problem that’s worth trying to solve. Grid solar power is so cheap you can waste 70% over a year (even more on sunny days) and in many areas still be paying less than coal per kWh.
Ultimately the grid doesn’t care about being oversized for specific days. There’s a wild difference in demand on sunny day in the summer vs a day that’s 70f. When it was 70f in the 1970’s they didn’t go out and destroy nuclear reactors or coal plants because they are unnecessary in May. That’s valuable infrastructure even when not in current use.
The only metric grid operators care about is does this grid design need the demand and what does it cost. Peaking power plants exist to fit edge case demands even if not used for months at a time, “peaking solar” isn’t a term anyone uses but solar + batteries can fit that niche.
by Retric
6/22/2026 at 10:53:26 PM
I don’t believe the “cheaply” part. You end up building storage that only gets used for one cycle a year, so the capital cost is very high per watt.by skybrian
6/23/2026 at 12:46:13 AM
I think you misunderstood, I am saying 20MW of solar power is less expensive than 1GWh of energy storage.Nothing in my post suggests 1GWh of storage is cheap.
by Retric
6/23/2026 at 2:26:19 AM
> They will also want reliable powerGiven the state of the power grid in Texas, this could be the most important consideration. Why? Texas is not connected to the national power grid, and only electricity from plants operating in Texas is available. The last winter and summer, demands on the grid have severely stressed, as reported in many places. In 2021 there as a state-wide crisis and almost a complete failure. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis
by cratermoon
6/23/2026 at 2:51:39 AM
These power gen facilities wouldn’t be connected to the grid, only the datacenter.by chasd00
6/23/2026 at 3:05:11 PM
Exactly. The data center gets it's own power, isolated from the flaky grid, and never has to deal with statewide crises.by cratermoon
6/22/2026 at 4:38:21 PM
The cost of gas is completely irrelevant. In order to bring a new large load onto the grid, you have to coordinate with ERCOT, and they just made that process more tedious. Once you get your grid connection approved and built out, you have to source your own power anyway, and frankly there just isn't enough power on the market to realize the stated datacenter buildout goals in this country.In short, you're going to have to build your own power plant anyway, so why bother with the grid? Gas is the cheapest, fastest zero-to-production choice for onsite power generation, and has been for a long time. Unless you're dealing with nuclear, the fuel cost just doesn't matter compared to the rest of the buildout, and gas wins because you can take off-the-shelf turbines and bolt them down.
You can only get away with it in places that don't care about environmental regulations, which are the places most likely to approve new buildout of gas infrastructure anyway. Nobody in the northeast is going to approve the creation of a brand new carcinogen factory.
by stonogo
6/22/2026 at 4:44:37 PM
> Gas is the cheapest, fastest zero-to-production choice for onsite power generation, and has been for a long time.Is it, though? There's a ton of projects out there waiting to get their solar on the grid in west Texas, partnering with one of them and launching the project early while waiting on the interconnection queue, and adding enough batteries, gives a more robust solution right now without the SPOF nature of large single generators.
Add to that the long backorder list for gas turbines right now, with no end in sight, and I'm surprised that Microsoft would power this particular location with turbines because it's probably their best chance to do off-grid massive solar projects.
Massive off-grid solar is what China is choosing for some absolutely massive new industrial projects. Nuclear is a no-go because it takes so long to deploy, but solar + batteries are cheap COTS and available in abundance, unlike gas turbines.
by epistasis
6/22/2026 at 4:51:24 PM
> Is it, though?Yes.
There is no point in waiting for interconnection when you can just... not do that, and do all your generation behind the meter, with complete control of the generation to match your load. Solar wants an interconnect so they can sell off surplus; with gas you just turn the dial down to meet the load and walk away.
The clock is running on the datacenter goldrush. 70-90% of the capex window is going to be soaked up just with construction time. Introducing a capricious ERCOT permit process and shopping around for friendly solar projects to hop in bed with makes no sense when you can just write a check and solve the problem forever.
I'd bet the deal with Chevron was to enable Microsoft to hop the queue here and get those GEV turbines soonest.
by stonogo
6/22/2026 at 4:55:43 PM
I'm not saying wait for an interconnection, I'm saying take a project that already has a fully developed plan, that's waiting for interconnection, and build the DC right there next to it, beef up the battery component of the plan and go to town. Interconnection happens some time in the future, giving far more financial opportunities for everyone, but in the interim the electricity goes fully to the DC.by epistasis
6/22/2026 at 5:15:44 PM
Because I expect the economics of enough batteries to carry a data center’s worth of demand through the night and morning is too expensive compared to essentially free natural gas.Data centers would ideally run at ~100% utilization, so any drop in solar output needs to be fully met by batteries.
by alex43578
6/22/2026 at 5:24:46 PM
> Data centers would ideally run at ~100% utilizationI don't think this is broadly accepted among major data center operators.
by jeffbee
6/22/2026 at 10:33:52 PM
Of conventional data centers or one's running GPUs? If you're not saturating your GPUs you're likely leaving money on the table.by pixl97
6/22/2026 at 11:00:56 PM
I don't really agree. The energy component of opex still dominates over the depreciation.by jeffbee
6/23/2026 at 12:15:57 PM
For AI data centers? Depreciation on the GPUs and AI accelerators is a bigger cost than electricity.Now it might be that a new data center will find it more difficult to obtain a reliable supply of electricity than to obtain GPUs, but your statement was about expenses.
by hollerith
6/22/2026 at 6:58:26 PM
IIRC ERCOT estimated from their experience it was something like 85% on average?by Matticus_Rex
6/22/2026 at 5:47:53 PM
What makes you think you can change the facility that's in the ERCOT queue while keeping your place in line?by rayiner
6/22/2026 at 5:24:38 PM
> Is it, though? There's a ton of projects out there waiting to get their solar on the grid in west Texas,gas turbines run at night too so there's no storage/backup supply issue to consider. They also take up significantly less space than wind or solar and those data centers are already gigantic.
by chasd00
6/22/2026 at 7:44:15 PM
>Is it, though?When you can colocate across the street from someone who's otherwise paying to get rid of it is.
When the fuel is free-ish who cares about backorder on turbines. You can run big diesels on NG (just like the pipeline people do).
by cucumber3732842
6/23/2026 at 6:49:03 AM
Gas turbine production is fully committed for years to come. There is no way to speed up production quickly. And for manufacturers of turbines, building new production capacity is a highly risky proposition because demand might well evaporate for these things. So they are reluctant to do that.If you want power quickly, wind, solar, and battery can be planned, installed, and producing power within a couple of years. Nothing else comes close to being that quick. If you want power this decade, that's pretty much the only thing available.
by jillesvangurp
6/22/2026 at 7:29:57 PM
Good luck. The renewables overbuild required to firm baseload demand for a datacenter is insane. You need something like 4x solar and 1.5x storage in a 10hr battery.Respectfully, the laws of NPV and IRR hurdles don't matter in Chinese infrastructure.
Whatever you choose in the US, it's not cheap, and developers crawl over each other to sign up hyperscalers. Race to the bottom.
by caminante
6/22/2026 at 7:17:06 PM
>Add to that the long backorder list for gas turbines right nowIf demand > supply then the price goes up. Doesn't mean you can't buy something though.
by dopa42365
6/23/2026 at 4:14:22 AM
> Gas is the cheapest, fastest zero-to-production choice for onsite power generation, and has been for a long time.Last I heard the wait time for turbines was ~5 years at the moment. I'm sure MSFT has some inside baseball with Chevron but it doesn't work as a general rule of thumb.
by jtbaker
6/23/2026 at 12:41:07 AM
>so why bother with the grid?To sell excess back to the grid when funny things happen to texans in the winter?
by protocolture
6/22/2026 at 6:35:53 PM
hopefully when the Ai bubble burst, all those new renewable plantals will be feeding the grid. and power will be the Aeron chairs of 2030.by iririririr
6/23/2026 at 12:13:00 AM
Do any huge datacenters run on solar + battery? I thought the point of gas turbines was to have reliable power that's set up quickly.by frollogaston
6/22/2026 at 7:40:04 PM
Natural gas is cleaner to burn than coal, if I had to guess this is lazy half-done greenwashing, i.e. 'at least it's not coal!' Similar to California's measures for cleaner power generation.by whaleofatw2022
6/22/2026 at 7:06:43 PM
There is also probably a balance of payments aspect of this. Chevron uses a ton of Azure. They probably asked for Microsoft to use some amount of Chevron in exchange. This is probably that deal.by outside1234
6/23/2026 at 7:58:00 AM
There's an efficient gas turbine shortage. If you're willing to run older inefficient gas turbines it's not so bad, and when the gas is free it doesn't matter how inefficient they are.Oy vey, what a perverse incentive.
by pseudohadamard
6/22/2026 at 4:42:31 PM
Profits still ain't easy.Cheap gas is great, but 2.67GW of new build natural gas in this market will cost $6-8 billion in fixed costs. You need wholesale pricing of ~$50-60/MWh ... OVER 25 years! ... to recover just the fixed costs.
For West Texas, prices averaged mid-$30s over the last year.
Microsoft has all of the leverage here, and Chevron wants a big announcement in an area where they don't have a lot of experience.
by caminante
6/22/2026 at 8:31:29 PM
I don't understand why datacenters especially shouldn't be able to run mostly on renewables.This won't apply to every datacenter, but the AI inference ones especially, should be seeing most demand during the day. So what's built in north America is used when it's daylight there?
If so, isn't that a perfect case for solar?
To be clear, I'm not saying it can power down, but at night it should be able to scale down significantly?
by hvb2
6/22/2026 at 11:32:06 PM
> should be seeing most demand during the dayI don't know if this is necessarily true - latency isn't really important for inference in the same way as many other services (at least the max ~300ms latency you get from hitting something on the other side of the globe) - compute in NA can serve all the other timezones just fine.
by p1necone
6/23/2026 at 6:16:14 AM
The most of the cost is GPU, not power.Demand for AI is global (except for Anthropic, haha).
When you build a DC that works only when the sun is shining, you are wasting half of you GPU capacity
by drysine
6/23/2026 at 7:33:09 AM
That's why you build batteries that can store electricity for the other half. Or maybe nuclear power.by rwyinuse
6/23/2026 at 5:04:35 PM
The batteries are expensive. Otherwise I'd expect to see wholesale electricity prices fluctuate a lot less.by frollogaston
6/23/2026 at 7:08:31 AM
Gas and petrol are technically by products of oil refineries that produce all sorts of chemicals. Before cars took off, refineries used to dump petrol in rivers as it was worthless. Petrol is still in demand but facing world wide double digit percentage declines as a quarter of the vehicles being sold is now electric. These vehicles don't require any petrol/diesel. That is closer to 50% in China and the rest of the world is buying lots of these things. By the mid 2030s, most vehicles sold will be electric world wide. That means a lot of refineries that are currently subsidizing chemical production with petrol and gas sales, are going to face some serious demand issues for these by products over the next decades.Texas is going to be somewhat shielded from this because of US policy on this front. But probably only for a few short years. Mostly LNG exports are currently very lucrative. But LNG production is bottlenecked on expensive infrastructure and shipping. And of course lots of importers of LNG are looking for more affordable alternatives as well because it is expensive. Doubly so since the recent Gulf conflict. A lot of planned infrastructure expansion just got cancelled.
So, there's probably a bit of gas overproduction happening in Texas currently and that's going to cause predictable issues when demand is going to be structurally lower. And the double whammy of petrol/diesel also going into structural decline is going to leave Texas with a lot of over production.
by jillesvangurp
6/22/2026 at 4:05:32 PM
Even corporate ESG policies bend the knee to cheap Texas energy!by declan_roberts
6/23/2026 at 2:50:27 AM
Is all natural gas the same or are there grades? Like is the gas that comes out of oil pumping the same kind I pay for to heat my house?by supertroop