4/2/2026 at 3:55:43 AM
I've probably said this a bunch of times already, but based on my past experience, any analysis built on month-to-month changes in the Steam Hardware Survey should be taken with a very large grain of salt, if not considered outright useless for any serious conclusions.The clue is already in the article itself. The author notes that "part of the jump at least appears to be explained by Valve correcting again the Steam China numbers." If you actually think about what that implies, it raises more questions than answers. A 31.85% monthly drop is obviously not organic, so yes, it makes sense to call it a "correction." But then why was the previous month's data so far off in the first place? Is there something fundamentally flawed in the survey methodology, like sampling bias, non-uniform distribution, regional skew, or something else?
And if this kind of correction happens this month, what's stopping it from happening in previous months? The reality is: it does happen all the time. You can usually spot at least one clearly unrealistic data point in almost every release.
At that point, it's hard to argue there's any real value in trying to analyze these results in a rigorous way.
by thrdbndndn
4/2/2026 at 6:02:57 AM
The explanation I've heard is simply: Chinese New Years happened, which means a lot more Chinese gamers are online in February during the week long national holiday.It happened in last year's March stats too: https://web.archive.org/web/20250404061527/https://store.ste... -25%
by ThatPlayer
4/2/2026 at 7:32:28 AM
Of the publicly available sources I think CloudFlares Radar is one of the better ones. Silver linings of having such wide dragnet on the internet. It puts Linux market share at 3-4%, with some regional variancehttps://radar.cloudflare.com/explorer?dataSet=http&groupBy=o...
Fun tidbits, Finland is at ~10% (!), and Germany at 6.3%.
by zokier
4/2/2026 at 7:41:25 AM
This was probably a lot more true in the past but Linux users tend to be more privacy conscious and do things like spoof their user agent, so this is almost certainly an undercount. You basically used to have to do this to browse the web before Firefox became one of the dominant browsers.by helterskelter
4/2/2026 at 8:39:27 AM
I don't know anyone who goes through the trouble to spoof their user agent and I know plenty Linux users.by pantalaimon
4/2/2026 at 9:25:34 AM
The archwiki Firefox privacy guide comes to mind, which mentions UA spoofing:by helterskelter
4/2/2026 at 10:48:54 AM
Actual reason: SBC retro handheld consoles now run Linux and people are using them to play steam indie games. The China holiday had some blow out pricing.Non primary devices more likely to run Linux. Primary still windows.
by brador
4/2/2026 at 9:08:21 AM
I do, to access YouTube TV on my Ubuntu HTPC.by blackmage8532
4/2/2026 at 8:03:01 AM
If you spoof user agent, you will get more captchas because it won't match their other fingerprinting.by microcode
4/2/2026 at 9:41:34 AM
You also get more captchas because you are on Linux, I see the Cloudflare one on my computer everytime.by LtdJorge
4/2/2026 at 9:57:46 AM
Used to be worse. Something happened in the last year and I'm seeing way way less random captchas for regular use from a residential IP. In '22-'24 it used to be extremely common, now it's an event when it happens. Also went from mint to plain ubuntu so that might have something to do with it?by NitpickLawyer
4/2/2026 at 10:39:39 AM
It's a good thing too, because when I see the Cloudflare captcha I try it once and if that doesn't work then I just close the tab and add it to the list of non-functioning websites.Cloudflare captcha = infinite loop of captchas (if it doesn't work on the first try). You can give up the moment that happens, because you will never get to the website itself.
by Aerroon
4/2/2026 at 9:41:28 AM
Privacy minded Linux users probably also know, spoofing your user agent is likely to increase fingerprint entropy and actually decreases privacy. It may have been true in the past, but I don't think anyone even recommends it anymore.by jijijijij
4/2/2026 at 10:25:11 AM
There's still plenty of web sites that check the OS and if it's not Mac OS, Windows, or Andoid it's no service for you. Faking your UA is not always about privacy, it's about defeating stupidity.by bregma
4/2/2026 at 10:38:18 AM
You should only do this on websites that actually require it otherwise you're almost certainly going to cause more problems than you'll solve.Messing with the UA header is going to get you flagged by every bot detection tool because when you change your header from "Firefox on Linux" to "Chrome on Windows" your fingerprints don't add up anymore and you look exactly like a poorly written bot. You're likely going to see more captchas, you might get blocked or rate limited more often, and get placed under increased scrutiny, orders held for verification, silently filtered or shadow banned, etc.
by dns_snek
4/2/2026 at 6:59:23 AM
Overall agreed. I think a more interesting look at this is the tracker which GamingOnLinux keeps (not yet updated with the new numbers as of writing), where they also have one graph that shows usage among only English speaking users. Overall it is trending upwards, and English Linux Steam users are approaching 9%.by krs_
4/2/2026 at 4:28:05 AM
The key word in the article is "again"'Valve correcting again the Steam China numbers.'
This seemingly is a common problem with the Steam Hardware Report, with Chinese users being erroneously represented. It constantly gets fixed, although takes a bit. It could be the hardware surveys are sent out at a different time compared to the rest of the world, then combined in the following month.
This is proven by "Ended 2025 at around a 3.5% marketshare, dipped a bit in January, and fell to 2.23% in February."
by HDBaseT
4/2/2026 at 9:17:46 AM
The other aspect I find interesting is the February spike in win10 usage, presumably from Chinese users. Where will they migrate to over the coming years as support goes away. They seem to be both resisting win11 and resisting linux perhaps as either it's not suitable for the games (online?) they play or not great for Chinese users, or perhaps along with the nvidia spike because of getting more out of those GPUs on windows.by keyringlight
4/2/2026 at 8:34:49 AM
It's because of the Chinese user influx during their holiday season. Valve is not correcting anything they are just showing the data. As usual, Phoronix is misinterpreting what they're looking at.by BoredPositron
4/2/2026 at 9:14:20 AM
It's about oversampling. Due how the survey is sent, a massive influx of machines coming online all at once will be more likely to trigger the survey. They know the general composition of their users, so they need the survey to be around the ballpark of that.by braiamp
4/2/2026 at 9:30:50 AM
They are still only reporting the data they see. They are not correcting or manipulating the data like phoronix implies in their article.by BoredPositron
4/2/2026 at 9:56:59 AM
Agree the numbers are not set in stone, but there is absolutely no denying that the Linux userbase has increased.Proton's updates is a game changer, Windows 11's absolutely garbage buggy slop is frustrating more and more people. OS' like CachyOS and Bazzite etc making the transition far more approachable than ever.
The future is bright.
by bilekas
4/2/2026 at 8:09:08 AM
I filled out the survey yesterday and it didn't notice my dGPU. No way to correct the entries as well.by Tade0
4/2/2026 at 5:05:01 AM
Even if it wasn't for corrections, one has to look at the longer trends and not just single months.Loads of people switch to Linux but I do wonder how many are still there a year later? I say this as someone that been a Linux daily runner since about 2010.
by HerbManic
4/2/2026 at 10:17:28 AM
> Loads of people switch to Linux but I do wonder how many are still there a year later?Everyone who bought a gaming PC last year, only to be told it has to be scrapped now because Windows 11 doesn't like the colour of the power cable.
by ErroneousBosh
4/2/2026 at 5:54:29 AM
> Even if it wasn't for corrections > Loads of peopleThis is all fine (and might even be true) but not having to fill in the gaps with anecdotal data and wishful thinking is precisely what good statistics are for. Bad statistics, on the other hand, make for a bad conversation starter because everyone is confused and it gets worse from there.
by jstummbillig
4/2/2026 at 4:03:16 AM
I mean you make good points and all, but on the other hand I really want this to be the year of the Linux desktop, so I'm gonna go with the other interpretation anyway!by amarant
4/2/2026 at 7:44:17 AM
Well, if it's any indication, my sister, who is very much not a tech person, randomly asked me to help her install Linux Mint a month ago, and has been using it successfully since without needing to ask for help once (at least not from me, I suspect ChatGPT is getting a workout).That felt like an indicator to me. I only switched to Linux a year or two ago and haven't mentioned it to her once, so she got the idea from somewhere else, and had enough impetus from whatever she disliked about Windows to actually go through with the change. If I was in marketing at Microsoft I'd be shitting myself over that, assuming Windows even still fits into their long term plans somehow. It's one thing for 100,000 techies to preach Linux across the web, but if random normies start using it without fanfare, that's real change.
by BigJono
4/2/2026 at 8:04:27 AM
There's a tipping point and we may be getting close. A few of my friends' kids & nephews have recently switched. Now that Valve seems to have solved the gaming compatibility issue, what Windows only software is left for teenagers to use that OS?by antihipocrat
4/2/2026 at 9:55:28 AM
Also, regardless of what you think of LLMs, it makes tech support for Linux a whole lot more accessible to the average person. There is going to be less of an expectation now that you need to have a Linux guru on speed dial for the occasional weird edge case situation.by majewsky
4/2/2026 at 4:15:11 AM
to give you a single data point, I've finally committed to linux on my desktop machine at home (I posted in another comment on this thread regarding my sim setup, thats another issue), but on the desktop machine, I installed steam, proton, downloaded a few games from my library, and they just worked on install, no stuffing around at all, no searching the web for fixes to get it going. It's probably been 6 years since I tried it, and last time I tried pretty much every game needed _something_) to be done to get it working. The level of technical knowledge required to get it going now is minimal, so maybe 2026 is the year of linuxthe one caveat was, ubuntu 24.04 LTS still didn't recognise my xbox wireless controller out of the box, and I needed to get xone and compile it and install the driver, a minor inconvenience, but something that would be beyond one of my daughtrs or wife. I've since moved back to debian though but already armed with that knowledge so it wasn't any kind of surprise.
next step will be to migrate my work machine, but that one is more difficult because the primary dev is in Delphi, so it'll probably be a case of linux on the hardware, and virtualbox running a win10 VM to do compilations, the other parts of the job are basically all o/s independent python dev, so no problem there.. although I will miss toad for oracle.
by malbs
4/2/2026 at 4:39:06 AM
There is value in the gaming specific distros since they already include all the stuff like controller drivers. I installed Bazzite on my desktop which I have plugged in to the TV and it's been every bit as seamless as the steamdeck. It boots up direct in to steam big picture mode and I can do everything with my xbox controller.Bazzite is an immutible os which is absolutely the future of linux. Your install will never break on updates since rather than a normal update migration process, it simply boots the next version of the OS image, which if it doesn't work will just revert back to the old image where you can wait for the bug to be fixed to update again.
by Gigachad
4/2/2026 at 7:10:15 AM
> I needed to get xone and compile it and install the driver, a minor inconvenience,Call me nitpicky, but this is why Linux desktop is not ready yet. If anything, I'm a firm believer that SteamOS will be Linux Desktop
by fyredge
4/2/2026 at 7:29:03 AM
I agree, but I'm sure Bazzite/CachySteamOS all have support for them on boot.by malbs
4/2/2026 at 9:31:33 AM
> CachySteamOSWhere can I find more information on that? I use CachyOS but never heard of that. Googling didn't find a single result (surprisingly, not even your comment)
by dalmo3
4/2/2026 at 9:44:49 AM
I think OP missed a slashby LtdJorge
4/2/2026 at 10:04:29 AM
yeah, sorryby malbs
4/2/2026 at 7:34:41 AM
Bazzite KDE picked up my 8BitDo controller immediately, with no prior configuration. I didn't even have to manually pair the Bluetooth. I was very impressed.by SquareWheel
4/2/2026 at 4:18:40 AM
Yeah I think for the not-so-tech-savvy gamer, there are better distros than Ubuntu. Ubuntu(and Debian) tend to lag behind the cutting edge a bit too. For such users I'd probably recommend fedora (or one of it's variants) or just straight up steamOSby amarant
4/2/2026 at 4:35:49 AM
As a Fedora user, I would actually recommend Ubuntu for gamers new to Linux, just because companies that offer Linux builds tend to only support Ubuntu. It's a bit more work comparatively to get to smooth sailing on Fedora. I think that work is worth it, of course, but new users might beg to differ.by cwnyth
4/2/2026 at 4:25:23 AM
I tried cachy, but I decided I hate the kde plasma environment, I should have chosen some other window manager but wanted to try the recommended onethere is also something to be said, negatively, for the number of distros now, cambrian explosion since the good old days of slack, deb, redhat, suse lol
by malbs
4/2/2026 at 6:14:53 AM
Doesn't Cachy support all of the DEs? Use it to try them all. (I don't know how CachyOS handles it; EndeavourOS lets you pick the DE on login.by mcv
4/2/2026 at 7:28:26 AM
yeah, on install you select a window manager, I didn't bother trying any others, just opted to go to Debian insteadby malbs
4/2/2026 at 4:31:00 AM
I honestly believe one of the main, highly supported Distros like:Debian, Arch, Fedora, Gentoo, Ubuntu, Nix, etc are all better choices than Catchy, Manjaro, Bazzite or whatever else niche distro exists.
I commonly find myself running into weird issues that I would of never run into otherwise. Bazzite for example by default, opens Steam on boot. This caused my games drives to not be mapped in Steam. (I assume Steam somehow booted before my drives were properly mapped) I helped my friend for hours troubleshooting his fstab config, rebooting, etc, but then realized it was just a default that he never set.
He quit Linux because of this (and some other minor gripes) and I don't think the gaming distros do much to properly help.
by HDBaseT
4/2/2026 at 7:41:39 AM
It has been achieved with WSL on Windows, and Virtualisation Framework on macOS.Other than that, I am still waiting for when I can buy a Dell, Asus, HP laptop on Media Markt or FNAC, with GNU/Linux pre-installed having 100% of the hardware being supported.
by pjmlp
4/2/2026 at 8:28:33 AM
a lot of people don't even have a computer and do everything on their phone. Given androids market share, one could argue Linux is already present on most desk tops and therefore has already won.by taskforcegemini
4/2/2026 at 4:23:22 AM
This time it's different.Linux was already stable enough 10 years ago as daily driver, i used Arch.
everything worked just fine, i remember only having issue with graphic drivers and glitches
I never really wanted anything more from it but when i moved to Mac, i saw how it prevents me from opening apps i downloaded from trusted site and every now and then i need to set xattr to open the files, and go through bunch of lockdowns.
Now freecad has improved so much, with all AI coding and all opensource will improve DRASTICALLY and very fast.
using AI which stole everyone's code to develop OpenSource is morally right thing to do vs using it at private companies. It will attract more devs.
by faangguyindia
4/2/2026 at 9:04:46 AM
I have tried Arch btwby unixhero