2/26/2026 at 3:08:45 AM
Story here: https://www.mediaite.com/politics/conservative-economist-sco...Archive.is gives server error on the wsj url.
TLDR: Musk fans bet that DOGE would cut government spending so the guy bet against them. He ended up betting around $342K (his liquid assets, not what most of us would call life savings) and hedged some of it later. Eventual result was he gained $128K.
by throwaway81523
2/26/2026 at 11:17:55 AM
That article's even better: the bet was a bipartisan one!> The WSJ report noted that Cole sought advice from other fiscal policy wonks, including Brookings Institution fellow Jessica Riedl, who said the outcome of the bet “should have been completely obvious to anyone who knows anything about the government, the budget and public administration.”
by nxobject
2/26/2026 at 1:49:30 PM
Anyone with any sort of intellectual honesty, or reads any kind of responsible news source would know that despite a solidly controlled GOP government, "fiscal responsibility" is just a slogan for the GOP. They're big government and big deficit spenders through and through.by duxup
2/26/2026 at 5:15:34 PM
I mean, that's the GOPFor all the sloganeering, Democratic administrations have better fiscal responsibility about deficit spending
It's amazing how Reagan-era propaganda still sticks despite all evidence
by xorbax
2/26/2026 at 6:24:49 AM
that doesnt seem like super great returnsby fruitworks
2/26/2026 at 12:22:19 PM
I think it’s the framing. ‘Bet’ makes us think about doubling up.This guy made a very calculated low risk wager for pretty great near-term rewards. He outperformed most hedge funds over the same period.
If he had gone all in on ‘black’ twice at a Vegas roulette wheel it’d be a more impressive total, but that’s gambling.
by bonesss
2/26/2026 at 3:08:31 PM
if you think of it like a bond it’s pretty fantastic. coupon rate 3.5% and you got it at a giant discount to par even though it’s actually (according to this guy’s beliefs which proved correct) nearly certain to be repaid.by currymj
2/26/2026 at 8:15:20 AM
~40% in a few months is epicby camgunz
2/26/2026 at 6:51:22 AM
It ain't much, but it's honest work.by mindslight
2/26/2026 at 9:43:41 AM
I mean that was kind of obvious, but I wouldn't know how to bet against that. Defense wasn't going to get cut. Cutting social security and friends is incredibly unlikely. Debt interest is impossible to cut. DOGE believed in cutting outside of that, and that's practically impossible.PS: After reading the article, is assertion is a bit stronger then that, but still very likely. Good bet.
by panick21_