2/19/2026 at 7:47:28 PM
Defunding the IRS is nothing but an effort to reduce tax enforcement. People that have relatively straightforward finances can be trivially audited in a formulaic way with data that's on hand - a lack of human auditing resources tends to benefit those with more complex finances which also tend to be the people with a lot of money who can afford to lobby for less enforcement funding.Also for reference, in 2024 the IRS had a rate of return of 415:1, they'll obviously target the lowest hanging fruit first but for every dollar of funding received they collected 415 dollars of tax revenue that would have been missed. This is an obscenely efficient organization.
by munk-a
2/19/2026 at 7:49:34 PM
Implied in your statement - it benefits those who can create more complex financial situations. Often the complexity of the situation is largely synthetic.by Traster
2/19/2026 at 7:51:50 PM
I agree that the complex financials are generally intentionally created for sheltering and that complexity is only possible because of our overly complex tax code which has been made significantly more complex by tax preparer lobbyists from Intuit and others.by munk-a
2/19/2026 at 8:19:46 PM
The reflex when people hear "complex" in this era: "Can we use AI for it?".Next month's headline: "IRS signs 200-million dollar deal with Grok to use AI to analyse tax returns, determine who gets audited".
by netsharc
2/19/2026 at 8:33:29 PM
You’re thinking too far behind. They can just use the AI to generate what your taxes would’ve been.Just have a script with “what are the taxes owed by $name” and print the output
I’ll take $5M now and you can own 50% of my startup: GenTaxAI
by akdev1l
2/19/2026 at 9:16:05 PM
I suspect something like this may already be in place.by oarla
2/19/2026 at 8:31:25 PM
Half-joking but this is genuinely the trajectory. The problem is that tax analysis requires understanding intent behind complex structures — is this a legitimate trust or a shell game? That's adversarial reasoning, not pattern matching.The real risk isn't that AI can't find anomalies — it's great at that. The risk is that the people creating complex avoidance structures will use AI too, and they'll iterate faster than a government system updated on procurement cycles. You end up with AI vs AI where one side has a 3-year upgrade timeline and the other ships weekly.
by cranberryturkey
2/19/2026 at 8:55:57 PM
In both cases though, mostly rich people.by yibg
2/19/2026 at 9:36:34 PM
That “415:1” is misleading and manipulative. The target rate of recovery is ~10:1, which is roughly what the IRS actually achieves.Audits are not an infinite money glitch. I used to work for a Federal audit agency that also recovered ~10:1. The reason we target 10:1 recovery on audits is because the return on funding additional audits beyond that falls off very sharply. Furthermore, more aggressive auditing greatly increases compliance costs which ultimately come back as costs to the Federal government, so the net recovered revenue is even less than the headline figure.
Audit recoveries tend to be about sloppy compliance, not people trying to cheat the system. People with more complex taxes are more likely to screw up the exponentially more complex compliance aspects. Auditors are mostly fighting entropy.
by jandrewrogers
2/19/2026 at 8:19:03 PM
Is that 415:1 the rate of return of an audit, or the expense:revenue ratio of the IRS as a whole? I remember hearing some time ago that the expense ratio was 11% for the IRS? But 415:1 is way way less than 11%.by stephen_cagle
2/19/2026 at 10:12:01 PM
Captured revenue : cost to capture (could be an audit, billing for interest/fees due, etc. lots of avenues to capture revenue that is being missed).The problem is these metrics aren't really scalable productivity metrics. If you doubled cost, it might go to 100:1, if you tripled cost, it might go to 0.5:1
Each dollar generally gets more expensive to capture.
by conductr
2/19/2026 at 10:26:27 PM
Good point, and kind of interesting in that as we keep cutting funding to the IRS, this ratio will probably get wider (which looks good, but is actually bad for what it implies).by stephen_cagle
2/19/2026 at 7:55:22 PM
They could also simplify tax law and they wouldn't need so much enforcement. There shouldn't be 5000 types of taxes spread all over the place.Get rid of sales tax, property tax, exemptions, IRAs, 401ks, short capital gains, long capital gains, medicare, state, all of that bullcrap. Annualized, non-annualized, credits for having an EV on the 4th day of the second Tuesday while being a fisherman, married and single filing differences, end all of that.
Just have one income tax. It should be the sigmoid of your income normalized to the median income in your zip code, then scale it so that the total of everyone's taxes added up makes up for all the other types of tax that we're getting rid of.
The IRS should then distribute whatever is needed to the states. The states are part of the country, their hierarchy is not my problem; give me one number to pay. My tax return should be no bigger than a postcard.
Done.
by dheera
2/19/2026 at 8:06:10 PM
> Get rid of sales tax, property tax, exemptions, IRAs, 401ks, short capital gains, long capital gains, medicare, state, all of that bullcrap. Annualized, non-annualized, credits for having an EV on the 4th day of the second Tuesday while being a fisherman, married and single filing differences, end all of that.I agree with your overall point of simplifying taxes by merging more things into income tax, but some of the taxes you mentioned are levied by local governments to fund themselves. The United States has a federal system; it would be a much bigger change to centralize all of the funding.
by AdamH12113
2/19/2026 at 9:31:29 PM
I... don't understand how that excuses complexity?what stops "local governments" from applying same type of tax as higher levels? why would they need taxes specific for them?
by NooneAtAll3
2/19/2026 at 10:17:17 PM
I tend to agree with this. The logic should be the same with different rate tables for each taxing body. What I don't want though is the Fed govt being the collector and distributor of all the funds. They already weld too much power with their various funding influences for transportation, healthcare, etc. The states and local govts shouldn't need to pander so heavily to the federal govt for funds.by conductr
2/19/2026 at 8:58:29 PM
> The United States has a federal systemThat doesn't prevent there being a single point of collection and distribution.
by dheera
2/19/2026 at 10:23:25 PM
It seems efficient and simple that way. But you don't want federal politics playing that much of a part of your local life. And you don't want your local politicians to have to pander to the federal levels just to get what they need or what is theirs. I think this would result in disaster as the federal politicians are too out of touch with local needs.If we had a single formula for taxes, then each taxing body could have their own rate table to apply to it, but still collect it directly - then I think that would be a better approach.
For simplicity sake, take income tax at flat rates. Federal may be 20%, your state might be 10%, city might be 5%. Maybe my state rate is only 5% and you might want to move here, but nationally we all pay the Federal 20% rate.
by conductr
2/19/2026 at 9:08:17 PM
It sorta does, that's one of the primary points of a federal system.by rmah
2/19/2026 at 9:28:36 PM
It literally does, this is one of defining differences of a federal system, that the states have a right to set and collect taxes.by KK7NIL
2/19/2026 at 9:21:17 PM
By definition, a federal system does prevent a single point of collection and distribution. If states could not or did not collect taxes on their own authority, it would not be a federal system. States would just be adjuncts of a national government.by xnyan
2/19/2026 at 9:16:48 PM
You’re absolutely correct. For income taxes many states and the federal government offset each others debts.In Canada provinces can choose to harmonize taxes or collect independently.
by PieTime
2/19/2026 at 9:36:14 PM
Which misses the point. If the point is to reduce the number of taxes, having the federal government collect 10 different types of taxes instead of state governments collecting 7 types of taxes won't change all the different taxes we have.There is no singular place we can change how many different taxes you pay. There's... thousands? Tens of thousands? Once you factor in city, county, state, federal, special districts, etc.
by bcrosby95
2/19/2026 at 7:59:43 PM
Didn’t they just get rid of the IRS automated filing app? You’ll have to kill off TurboTax and siblings to simplify the tax code.by lazyasciiart
2/19/2026 at 8:50:01 PM
Ok what about for the people that mainly earn their living not from an income paid by a job; ie the richest people in the country?by rtkwe
2/19/2026 at 8:58:08 PM
Taxes aren't just there to provide an income stream to the government. It's also a mechanism to guide behavior via incentives (or punishment). Right or wrong there we're providing an incentive to hold assets longer, or use less fuel or buy from domestic producers etc.by yibg
2/19/2026 at 9:10:17 PM
IIRC, this was one of the main arguments for the Articles of Confederacy, the states were pretty nervous about this exact situation.This was reaffirmed by Marshall [1] with the famous “the power to tax involves the power to destroy."
[1] https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/mcculloch-v-mar...
by claytongulick
2/19/2026 at 9:49:16 PM
This misses the point that tax exemptions are the way politicians campaign for voter blocks. Having different kinds of taxes makes it easier to target a voter blocks more precisely.by rkeene2
2/19/2026 at 8:08:50 PM
> Get rid of sales tax, property taxThe very first things you list aren't related to the IRS at all. They're local and state taxes, and to get rid of those would require a radical rewriting of the Constitution itself. Not to mention it would destroy all fire department, county hospital, school, city park, state park, etc. funding.
by KPGv2
2/19/2026 at 8:15:32 PM
Of course they're not, but this is how you smell someone that doesn't really want to enforce paying taxes, but just wants to evade them as much as possible.How quickly people show their colors.
by izacus
2/19/2026 at 8:54:10 PM
I don't think that's fair. The US has so many administrative layers with taxing powers - federal, state, county, and municipal, and in many cases administrative bodies also charge massive filing fees, and courts charge large fees to finance themselves because they're consistently under-funded by legislatures.So Americans get taxed a lot at many different levels of activity. The cognitive load of having so many different points of taxation is annoying and exhausting to a lot of people. It makes household budgeting a lot more work than it really needs to be.
But it is this way because of the Constitution
They maybe we should change that and have a simpler system with much less complexity. Dismissing people who object to the painful complexity of the US tax regime as 'evaders' is npt insightful or helpful.
by anigbrowl
2/19/2026 at 9:20:01 PM
> maybe we should change that and have a simpler system with much less complexityWholeheartedly agree, but I see the root cause of the issue being income tax itself. As soon as you tax income, you'll go down and endless rabbit hole of what's fair to tax, how much, what kind of income, investment income vs wage income, percentage vs flat rate, etc...
That gave us the mess we have.
I like the idea of consumption tax exclusively (would require an amendment). You're taxed on your purchases.
It's easy to drive behavior (more tax on some things... tax on cigarettes, yachts and private jets) and easy to make more fair (exclude grocery staples).
by claytongulick
2/19/2026 at 8:07:32 PM
Why would you simplify the tax code if the whole point of the tax code is to create loopholes so you can pay way less taxes than the public would vote for?The tax code exists for Welfare Queen Billionaires like Elon Musk.
by onlyrealcuzzo
2/19/2026 at 9:18:00 PM
Well see, you actually missed the catch that by eliminating everything except income tax people like Elon wouldn't have to pay any tax, it's even better for them. He's not getting a W-2, virtually all of his income is actually capital gains or similar.by DSMan195276
2/19/2026 at 8:10:06 PM
Well it's a retort on the 2022 IRA bill, which increased the IRS budget by 80 billion over 10 years, and paved the way to hire 87,000 people. There has been a lot of hiring recently so it's hard to tell one thing from another but this isn't so much of mass layoff as an attempt at returning to normal.by guywithahat
2/19/2026 at 8:19:22 PM
Please provide evidence for what you considered to be normal to be an effective workforce for the ongoing task at hand (nation state tax collection).by toomuchtodo
2/19/2026 at 9:17:07 PM
The evidence was the baseline before the increaseby groundzeros2015
2/19/2026 at 9:47:31 PM
The baseline was there was significant tax evasion by high net worth individuals. The staff up was to counter that, staffing down puts us back at reduced enforcement.Someone has to pay to operate a nation state, you can’t borrow forever to fill the gap and there’s nothing left to cut.
by toomuchtodo