5/23/2025 at 9:59:13 AM
"Making net-zero wind power possible"?Is that trying to tackle the non-problem that was spun up a while ago by oil companies in propaganda pieces like the Landman show on TV?
It's a non-problem. The lifecycle assessment of wind turbines today, which is the accounting for the actual emissions of the lifetime of a wind turbine, factoring in: creation, installation, maintenance, even the disposing of it, was clocked to be offset after 5.3 months of running the turbine (according to this study: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.9b01030 ; and every other one I could find finds the same ballpark)
by sebstefan
5/23/2025 at 10:26:39 AM
Please note that the study takes the energy that the wind turbine produce and calculate how much green house gases a natural gas-fired power plant would create producing the same amount of energy.by belorn
5/23/2025 at 10:40:08 AM
Without having checked the study because I can't open the link on this machine: does it also take recycling of the metals into account? There's also cost in placement (which are very significant in places like the North Sea for instance), and digging up the rare earth minerals and such.by once_inc
5/23/2025 at 11:12:51 AM
No, no mentioning of recycling. It only look at average energy output, converts it into what a natural gas power plant would do to get the same amount, and compare it to an estimation of green house emissions from producing the turbine. They do mention creating the estimation of production emissions from 28 wind turbine LCA studies of 22 on- and 6 offshore locations, so it sound like they include placement costs, but I can't say for sure. on- and offshore turbines may not be built identically.The fundamental question that the study ask is if the wind turbine would replace an existing natural gas-fired power plant, how much less green house gases would it produce compared to keeping the natural gas-fired power plant, and how does that compared to the production emissions of the wind turbine.
by belorn
5/23/2025 at 1:42:10 PM
Why not a nuclear power plant? And how about the battery backup that the wind power needs to be reliable?by cyberax
5/23/2025 at 1:54:33 PM
Nuclear is so expensive the only reason anyone builds them is governments wants a source of nuclear trained people around for military purposes (either bombs or navy ships).Battery backup isn't a needed as much as many thing in the real world. Those gas power plants we already have are not going anywhere, so we still use them when there isn't much wind. Though battery is something we should be building instead (and are).
by bluGill
5/23/2025 at 2:24:51 PM
Wait, what? There are also a number of countries that operate nuclear plants purely for civilian electricity production. Military applications are not the primary motivator.Instead, civilian energy demands and energy independence are the motivating factors. Look at how Ontario leveraged its electricity supply in the early days of the trade war.
by xattt
5/23/2025 at 3:13:21 PM
I said build not operate. The world situation has changed, 50 years ago nuclear power was a good idea to build. If you have a working nuclear power plant I'd generally keep operating it, and do small upgrades over time. However building a new one is something you should only do if you have military needs. (note that showing off is sometimes a military need)by bluGill
5/23/2025 at 9:25:24 PM
CANDU 9 and Advanced CANDU reactors were developed and built during a time when Canada had no active military nuclear program.by xattt
5/23/2025 at 2:27:25 PM
In most of Europe, nuclear is cheaper than anything else but coal, natgas, and classic hydro.When you also add the cost of battery backup.
Spain and Portugal have just experienced the first taste of that fact.
by cyberax
5/23/2025 at 5:41:15 PM
Most of the cost of nuclear is in construction so extending the life of existing nuclear power stations as long as possible makes sense. However new nuclear in Europe has been much more expensive and even France has lost the ability to build new nuclear capacity cheaply.by laurencerowe
5/23/2025 at 4:55:39 PM
Nonsense, by that logic Lithuania should have been a #2 military power long time ago (having built nukes from a civil nuclear reactor) (it used to operate #2 largest nuclear reactor in the world, now it would be #4).by mndgs
5/23/2025 at 5:38:07 PM
I mean Lithuania's nuclear reactors were built while it was part of the #2 military power in the world and have since been shut down.https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profil...
by laurencerowe
5/23/2025 at 4:02:17 PM
You can do the same with a nuclear power plant and calculate how much power it generate and how much green house gases that represent if it was produced by a natural gas-fired power plant. Fuel cost is a thing, but to my knowledge they are fairly minor in terms of greenhouse emissions when compared to burning fossil fuels.Batteries/storage do not produce energy so they don't displace any energy in this kind of calculations. They can be viewed as a small efficiency increase of existing wind turbines, in which case they do have a form of greenhouse gas payback time, although the energy must not be counted twice for both the turbine and battery, and the increased wear and tear on the wind turbine may impact the result.
Wind generally has an production rate of around 50%, which mean that countries like Denmark that has already reached over 100% wind production still only have energy for half of their consumption. This mean the storage need is fairly massive, which they currently solve by importing energy from fossil fueled thermal power stations, nuclear and hydropower from nearby countries. Constructing more wind power at this point does not seem economical for power companies, and any storage solution like lithium, reverse hydro, and so on are also not economical (as in, there is basically zero investment into it outside of government subsidized initiatives). As such, wind has in that location seem to have reached its ability to displace any more fossil fuel.
by belorn
5/23/2025 at 3:14:13 PM
Because nobody is lobbying to build nuclear power plants instead of windmills because of the lifecycle emissions of the windmill production.by delusional
5/23/2025 at 4:58:51 PM
It would be laughable to compare nuclear with any alternative based on the cost of externalities.by motorest
5/23/2025 at 11:00:35 AM
so... that estimate should be even shorter, since we're replacing primarily coal stations?by NooneAtAll3
5/23/2025 at 1:16:42 PM
Turns out gas is just as bad as coal when you account for leaksby mavhc
5/23/2025 at 1:21:44 PM
if you believe the carbon equivalency metrics for methaneby throwawaymaths
5/23/2025 at 2:14:28 PM
Why would you not believe that?by virgildotcodes
5/23/2025 at 4:30:24 PM
there's a lot of unmeasured assumptions and if you read what is described to the public its usually scientifically wrong. usually it's one of:- methane has a higher absorption than CO2
incorrect. CO2 has a dipole moment amd c-infinity-v symmetry so it absorbs way more
- methane has higher absorption in open windows of IR frequencies
also incorrect. the water band don't overlap with CO2
- methane has a longer atmospheric half-life
incorrect. you can look up the numbers on this. i believe it was believed to have a longer half life a few decades ago but detailed isotopic studies have disproved it?
you have to dig really deep to figure out that there is I think? an estimated self-shading effect of CO2 that changes the marginal absorbance of a single molecule. but this assumes a uniform distribution of CO2 in the atmosphere and no scattering. anyways i think this is not spoken of because it also reminds that the effect of Co2 is logarthmic (A = log(T))
by throwawaymaths
5/23/2025 at 10:03:20 AM
> The lifecycle assessment of wind turbines today, which is the accounting for the actual emissions of the lifetime of a wind turbine, factoring in: creation, installation, maintenance, even the disposing of it, was clocked to be offset after 5.3 months of running the turbineVery informative. Thank you.-
by Bluestein
5/23/2025 at 6:31:27 PM
But are there any iron mines, steel plants etc that actually work on electricity?Otherwise you can calculate any offset you want, but it'll be a paper exercise.
by Scarblac
5/23/2025 at 6:19:25 PM
They still need conventional power plants for backup which will make the life-cycle electricity emissions of the whole system much dirtier.by cbmuser
5/23/2025 at 8:12:43 PM
But building and installing the wind turbine still requires some emissions.The wind turbine doesn't remove carbon from the air, so the offset you are talking about is not a real offset, it's only relative to how much CO2 wasn't released in the atmosphere by a more polluting source of power that would have been used instead.
Wooden wind turbines would allow sequestrating carbon (in the cut trees that make their structures) and potentially compensate the carbon necessary to assemble and install the wind turbine, if the trees are replanted.
by thrance
5/23/2025 at 10:30:13 AM
At least wood is more recyclable, so why not.Thanks for the study link!
by jiehong
5/23/2025 at 10:38:12 AM
Is it though? Steel is very easy to recycle. Engineered timber that is full of various glues and fire retardants not so much.by twelvechairs
5/23/2025 at 10:48:17 AM
I thought the main problem with recycling them were the fiber composite blades? If they keep those but just swap the metal tower with a wooden one they've achieved exactly nothing in practice.by moffkalast
5/23/2025 at 11:40:04 AM
Well replacing the tower reduces embodied emissions from the steel. Sure that's not as big as an issue if the steel was already recycled (and would be recycled again) using an electric arc furnace powered by renewables, but the wood is actually negative since it's storing carbon while it's not decomposing.The blades themselves isn't really much of an issue if you actually compare it to fossil fuels - for example, coal fly ash was 18% of all waste generated in Australia around 2019 (this is likely a bit less now as one or two major coal plants have since been decommissioned).
I think it's astronomically unlikely that wind turbine blades would ever be that kind of proportion of a country's waste, but it was just a normal thing for coal. And gas and oil have a similar problem, it's just harder to see since it's fine particulate matter belched into the air instead of heavier ash that you have to deal with!
1. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-10/coal-ash-has-become-o...
by stephen_g
5/23/2025 at 4:53:51 PM
"The research indicates that there will be 43 million tonnes of blade waste worldwide by 2050" https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09560...by nabla9
5/23/2025 at 5:46:43 PM
Which just isn't very much. The US currently produced 120 million tonnes of coal ash per year.by laurencerowe
5/23/2025 at 12:03:29 PM
This is not just wood though. This is wood fibers mixed with some sort of resin.by cinntaile
5/23/2025 at 10:13:40 AM
What about more complex and expensive infrastructure required for balancing uneven electricity output?by anticodon
5/23/2025 at 11:44:03 AM
A bit more complex, but it doesn't have to be more expensive...I think this is massively overblown, it was actually hard to manage a grid with baseload generation, since you still needed peaker plants for the morning and afternoon peaks and then had massive amounts of excess power overnight.
It's just that that's what people were used to, not that it's actually the best or easiest model for managing grids.
Highly variable sources bring some different challenges than the old status quo, but we also have much more sophisticated technology in the power space now anyway. And that new and sophisticated tech can produce new opportunities that outweigh the challenges if anything.
So I take arguments like yours with a massive grain of salt. How you put it is not really the case.
by stephen_g
5/23/2025 at 10:25:03 AM
The same as for the wood turbine.It also matters before asking the question of batteries how much turbines it's going to take before the problem actually needs to be tackled
The problem doesn't arise immediately in the duck curve. It depends on how much of the energy mix of the place is composed of controllable sources alongside your wind and solar
I recall seeing that the need for batteries is tiny if you accept a 10% share of carbon emitting energy across the year - so all in all, another non-problem, or at least first you should focus on building the turbines to reach the problem, then think of whether or not it's worth getting batteries for the rest.
by sebstefan
5/23/2025 at 10:39:04 AM
"Uneven electricity output"?The variation on output is over a matter of hours (wind powerful enough to spin entire wind farms is not something that comes one second and is gone the next), and large grids with import and export capabilities are largely self-regulating.
Cost fluctuations in the electricity market regulate whether e.g., power storage sites will charge or dump power, whether district heating plants will source more heat from giant electric kettles, when EVs will start to charge, when private smart water heaters will preheat, when people decide to schedule washing machines and dishwasher, whether offline fossil fuel power plants will be fired up to sell as the rate becomes more lucrative or shut down as power becomes too cheap, whether any "idle" plants will throttle up or down, and whether windmills will engage brakes and turn away from the wind or release brakes and turn into it.
Power grids have also always had the ability to load shed by dropping customers off the grid, starting with factories that have special agreements, in case the combined local production and import is insufficient, and can detatch from neighboring grids and countries if there are import/export issues that could destabilize the grid.
The grid needs to change when supply or load conditions change significantly (e.g., every house in a city suddenly having an EV or heat pump, every house in a city suddenly having solar cells and supplying a ton of power, a power plant or wind farm being built somewhere power has not previously been routed), and can be optimized (e.g., power storage, smart load scheduling), but that is entirely orthogonal to windmills.
by arghwhat
5/23/2025 at 10:15:26 AM
yes - RE Spain a month ago ..by WinstonSmith84
5/23/2025 at 10:23:57 AM
Was a root cause done on that? Was it due to wind power?by coolcase
5/23/2025 at 11:02:16 AM
Trigger suspected to be one substation https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/power-generation-los... The blackout itself is suspected to be amplified by ren https://montelnews.com/de/news/96607ac1-dd73-4c23-bb47-a7c2a... "Die Experten betonen, dass erneuerbare Anlagen das Problem nicht nur nicht abfedern konnten, sondern möglicherweise verstärkt haben."by Moldoteck
5/23/2025 at 12:16:33 PM
And RE is running the grid in "strengthened mode". There were no comments about what this means, but looking at the data, gas+nuclear are modulated less vs usual, regardless of ren generation https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/ES/72h/hourlyby Moldoteck
5/23/2025 at 12:20:51 PM
and here's the link about more gas firming https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/spain-boo...by Moldoteck
5/23/2025 at 10:48:18 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackou...The root cause is not known, but Spain was producing excess power (primarily solar) at the time around the disconnect. Some fluctations were seen, then supply started to disconnect from the grid in Spain, leading to sudden loss of 2.2GW of power. In Spain, automatic load shedding then happened to try to recover, but it was too little too late as neighboring countries detached from Spain to protect their own grids.
Nothing about this sounds like an issue with renewables.
by arghwhat
5/23/2025 at 10:47:07 AM
No, the study is still ongoing. I can't find the link (and Google is functionally useless for finding original links) but Spain's power authority held an update last week where they gave a summary of events (where the failure first happened, where it spread to, etc) and if I understood correctly will have non-Spanish/French/Portuguese experts do the full investigation.Still a ways away from understanding what happened
by passwordoops
5/23/2025 at 1:16:04 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackou...not strictly because of wind power but few denies that wind power hasn't been a contributing factors - politically it's too sensitive so it's going to be "under investigation" for a long time. Alledgedly too little inertia / rotating power ... there is a parallel to the Australian blackout 10 years ago, where the solution was to build large batteries
by WinstonSmith84
5/23/2025 at 1:08:09 PM
does that number take into account the area of nature paved to create roads for transporting those huge masts?by internet_points
5/23/2025 at 1:20:49 PM
Because they require so little, infrequent, maintenance it makes very little sense to pave asphalt roads to wind tower locations.For the vast majority of wind farms, dirt or gravel roads connect masts to pre-existing infrastructure.
The largest wind farm in the US is the Alta Wind Energy Center: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rPjUGSTN979dfUoDA
The largest wind farm in Europe is the Markbygden Wind Farm: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ETVeMXpf1uPieTct8
Dirt and gravel roads.
I'm not saying that there have never been roads paved to create wind farms.
I am saying that the number of roads that have paved is so small that it is irrelevant.
by os2warpman
5/23/2025 at 9:21:46 PM
Can't speak for the US, but that is not the case in Norway.There have been massive protests due to the amount of nature destroyed. There are some before-after sliders on
https://www-nrk-no.translate.goog/dokumentar/her-er-norges-s...
(scroll around for "wind") that give an indication, although the most striking difference is experience by the people who used to go for hikes in remote places where there are now immense wind parks. The wind companies love building them up in the previously-untouched mountain regions since I guess height = more power, also less NIMBY neighbours.
https://www.google.no/maps/place/Buheii/@58.6554134,6.887061... had zero roads a decade ago, now it's all roads. And with roads come traffic and people and cabins and tourism and more roads.
Now they're saying we need more wind parks for AI data centers (a few years ago it was for crypto). We're tearing down nature so we can keep growing our energy use while staying "green".
by internet_points
5/23/2025 at 2:22:15 PM
looking at the wind farm from a certain elevation reminds me of west texas where each of the dots is a gas well instead of a turbine. then my brain went hard left and imagined the wind turbines being used to pump gas in some insane reasonby dylan604
5/23/2025 at 1:57:50 PM
Why should it? We already have all those roads as they were built for all our other transport needs and have plenty of spare capacity for the few wind turbines (1 every 5 minutes is not much use on a modern road) we are building.Unless you are talking about the last 100 meters - but as the other reply pointed out, those are not roads. Most of the ones I've seen are grass - the roads are used so little we don't need gravel and they don't even turn into dirt.
by bluGill