1/15/2025 at 9:23:19 PM
> That application was submitted in March 2024 and is on track for approval in December 2026Next time you complain that waiting for a code review approval till next week is excruciatingly long, think about these turnaround times.
Also this is why we can't quickly build many reactors to ramp up electric generation for millions of new electric cars, etc.
by nine_k
1/15/2025 at 10:42:53 PM
The grid connection backlog is about 6 years, so this is considerably quicker than for a renewable energy project that requires a new grid interconnect.by bryanlarsen
1/16/2025 at 2:40:08 AM
That is actually VERY fast for anything related to nuclear reactors.by UltraSane
1/16/2025 at 1:11:40 AM
You probably don't want a nuclear reactor (of all things) to be built in sprints of two weeks, according to the tenets of Agile.by thrance
1/16/2025 at 2:26:30 AM
Okay, we had a partial meltdown in prod, and released some radioactive iodine-131, so that goes on the sad face side of of the retro board.But on the good side, we _didn't_ have a hydrogen explosion due to some late-night troubleshooting, great work Carl!
But we learned a lot, our alerts were confusing, and our metrics didn't surface coolant level or the relief valve that was stuck open.
So next sprint, let's focus on monitoring and cross-team knowledge transfer! 3 points, right?
by EdwardDiego
1/16/2025 at 2:34:57 AM
While true, this has nearly nothing to do with building (still to happen) or planning (has to be finished before the approval process). It is a 2 year paperwork delay and making sure the NIMBYs have all the time they might need to get organised.by roenxi
1/16/2025 at 2:53:54 PM
> Also this is why we can't quickly build many reactors to ramp up electric generation for millions of new electric cars, etc."We" here means any country on the planet. Nuclear plants are simply inherently more complicated and more risky to build that the alternatives. Even China, who often rightly, gets criticized for pushing through individual rights on such projects can't build them quickly.
Look at the shape of these curves [1], nuclear is flatlining while renewables are accelerating at incredible speed.
[1]:https://cleantechnica.com/2023/02/06/renewables-in-china-tre...
by _aavaa_
1/16/2025 at 5:57:27 AM
The time to review reactor design should be long, given that something going wrong with a leak of any kind could have widespread effects for generations.by IOT_Apprentice
1/15/2025 at 10:56:44 PM
> why we can't quickly build many reactorsNo. The reason is that they have not been price competitive with renewables.
And so there isn't the volume of approvals that gives regulators experience which in turn reduces approval times.
Commercial solar takes months to approve by comparison.
by threeseed
1/16/2025 at 3:06:04 AM
The reason nuclear isn't price competitive with renewables—or anything, really—is because of the amount of safety regulation and lack of experience building plants. Both of these emerged, at least in part, from decades of protests from well-meaning people with a laughable misunderstanding of how radiation works. So, you get people saying "don't build nuclear, it's unsafe!" and then you demonstrate that it's as safe as any energy technology in existence, so those people say "okay fine... don't build nuclear, it's expensive!" when they are the reason it's expensive. Meanwhile, we managed to create an irreparable 1.3C rise in global temperatures while waiting for solar, wind, and battery to catch up to where we could have been 70 years ago.by karaterobot
1/16/2025 at 2:10:32 PM
There needs to be generalized a term for NIMBYs for resisting various solutions to a number of issues because this pattern in liberal democracies around the planet isn’t exactly helping anyone make progress on the more core issues these folks seem to also be interested in.by devonkim
1/15/2025 at 11:29:17 PM
Once they’ve approved this reactor, build more of the same.by TheSpiceIsLife
1/15/2025 at 11:34:11 PM
That's a decision for the markets.And right now renewables continue to get better and cheaper so it will be hard for nuclear to get much traction.
by threeseed
1/16/2025 at 2:57:57 PM
> That's a decision for the markets.Says who? This is an opinion, not a fact.
All of the newer SMR companies are pitching their design as costly at start, but then cheaper because of mass production. Well the entire gaggle of companies won't all be able to mass produce their SMRs in the numbers required to get the scale down since there isn't the appetite for it.
by _aavaa_
1/15/2025 at 11:06:08 PM
Last I checked solar without batteries is roughly the same price per Kw as nuclear. There’s a huge difference in capability though because nuclear is 24/7 peak availability which solar can’t do and if you start building batteries the price increases substantially.I agree on regulatory experience but that comes more from panic over nuclear proliferation rather than any economic reason. Whether or not you view that as a legitimate concern is open to debate.
by vlovich123
1/15/2025 at 11:09:28 PM
For anyone arguing about this, please first look at https://www.cis.org.au/commentary/opinion/nuclear-vs-renewab...The primary cost of running solar plants is no longer the panels themselves (ie if they drop to 0 the $/KW wouldn’t change a whole lot).
by vlovich123
1/16/2025 at 11:26:30 AM
That's a Liberal Party think-tank supporting a hypocritical and ill-thought-out Liberal policy.Maybe people should read something from the actual domain experts instead? The latest CSIRO report specifically responded to the claims made about extending the time period.
> CSIRO said accounting for a 60-year life reduced the costs of nuclear by about 9% compared with calculating over 30 years, but found other technologies such as solar and wind saw similar cost reductions of about 7% under the same approach.
You yourself seem a bit confused about facts after using these sources.
1. Nuclear is not anywhere near the same price as solar. (I'm hoping you typo'd and were really trying to make the much saner but still wrong claim that renewables plus storage has costs comparable to nuclear which this document tries to claim)
2. It's not just the panel costs that have dropped, the delivered cost of solar energy has been falling. It dropped 12% in 2023 alone. This has lots of causes, like the safe and predictable success of solar allowing for lower interest rates and cheaper panels allowing for other assumptions to be rethought (e.g. ditch trackers that used to maximise output per panel and use the money and space saved to buy more panels).
by ZeroGravitas
1/16/2025 at 5:38:15 AM
> nuclear is 24/7 peak availabilityWell, nuclear is 24/7 base load. Nuclear can't peak that well. Also, when nuclear goes offline it does so for days.
by cryptonector
1/15/2025 at 11:13:52 PM
> Last I checked solar without batteries is roughly the same price per Kw as nuclear.You didn't check, you decided to cook the presentation of the facts.
Indeed, solar is not available 24/7. But it's not individual installations which need 24/7 availability, it's the grid as a whole; plus, energy use during the day and night differs, so even the grid as a whole doesn't need the same generation capacity 24/7. And - the grid has many different energy sources (i.e. not just solar and nuclear), some renewable and some non-renewable, which aren't daylight-only.
Which is to say there is plenty of room for solar installations irrespective of energy storage solutions. And indeed, those installations are taking place, and they are rather cheap.
by einpoklum
1/16/2025 at 11:58:30 PM
> Indeed, solar is not available 24/7. But it's not individual installations which need 24/7 availability, it's the grid as a whole; plus, energy use during the day and night differs, so even the grid as a whole doesn't need the same generation capacity 24/7The peak to trough is ~30% reduction if I recall correctly. It’s different but not massively so. And long distance energy transport is insanely expensive. It’s being done but mainly to stabilize the grid rather than arbitrage. And your entire solar capacity in the US goes offline for ~12+ hours. That’s a lot of energy you’re going to have to supplant in other ways regardless of long distance.
> And indeed, those installations are taking place, and they are rather cheap.
Because the cost of storage and the destabilization of the grid it causes the provider are treated as externalities.
by vlovich123
1/16/2025 at 1:38:34 AM
> Last I checked solar without batteries is roughly the same price per Kw as nuclearWhen your basic assumption is that an entire industry is doing something dumb, it’s probably wrong. If nuclear was actually that cheap electric companies would constantly be proposing new projects, but it’s not.
> 24/7 peak availability
The industry abandoned nuclear because electricity demand stopped increasing decades ago. It simply isn’t cost competitive when facing both significant curtailment and the need for backup generation for the multiple weeks to months downtime nuclear power plants have semi annually.
That’s the core issue nuclear needs both 24/7 demand, and the grid to also be perfectly fine when it goes away for months. That only possible when it makes up ~30% of supply which is roughly where it’s been for decades.
Now having not built nuclear for decades once off projects are constantly wildly over budget and behind schedule. Solar + batteries is currently beating even optimistic estimates for nuclear just about anywhere, let alone current boondoggle pricing.
by Retric
1/16/2025 at 11:55:37 PM
> When your basic assumption is that an entire industry is doing something dumb, it’s probably wrong. If nuclear was actually that cheap electric companies would constantly be proposing new projects, but it’s not.The industry is doing the right thing but the reason it’s not choosing nuclear is because regulatory burdens make project success and prices highly variable and uncertain, not to mention a shift in political winds kills your project. The reason isn’t purely a price thing.
> The industry abandoned nuclear because electricity demand stopped increasing decades ago
There’s no way this is true considering that crypto and AI have started to push significant power demands.
> Now having not built nuclear for decades once off projects are constantly wildly over budget and behind schedule. Solar + batteries is currently beating even optimistic estimates for nuclear just about anywhere, let alone current boondoggle pricing.
That’s a choice we get to make. China is building their nuclear muscle because they realize it’s required for baseload for solar, way cheaper than batteries, and the only way you’re going to be able to charge all these EVs.
by vlovich123
1/17/2025 at 3:53:25 AM
> There’s no way this is true considering that crypto and AI have started to push significant power demands.I was describing what happened when we stopped building nuclear power plants, not what’s happening now or in the near future.
From 1.7TWh in 1975 to 3.1TWh in 1995 is an 82% increase in demand in just 20 years, but the next 20 years only takes us to 3.9TWh in 2015 a 26% increase. That had massive knock on effects in terms of power plant construction, move forward to 2023 demand is only at 4TWh less than a 3% increase. https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-co...
The point of that was simply context.
> The reason isn’t purely a price thing.
All that risk ultimately just equates to a cost, if nuclear was wildly profitable to operate nobody would care about those risks but it’s at best barely breaking even when nothing goes wrong.
Also, costs rose not because of regulations in a vacuum. 3 mile island happened because of a lack of maintenance, you don’t solve that problem without spending more money on maintenance. And so it goes for a huge range of issues like foreign material in cooling ponds. Suddenly there’s all this effort when working around cooling ponds to avoid a multi million dollar issue and that’s not free, but there’s no free lunch where you can avoid the expense and not also be cautious.
Thus nuclear power was always expensive, the costs where initially just hidden as risk and escalating maintenance costs.
by Retric
1/16/2025 at 1:52:53 AM
>Last I checked solar without batteries is roughly the same price per Kw as nuclearChecked where? Lazard says it is one fifth of the price.
>There’s a huge difference in capability though because nuclear is 24/7 peak availability which solar can’t do
Not 24/7. They have to be turned off for maintenance and when that happens e.g. France burns an awful lot of gas.
Pair solar with wind and storage and it's still cheaper than raw, nuclear power and would be even if matching storage were 4x the cost.
by pydry
1/16/2025 at 11:59:46 PM
> Not 24/7. They have to be turned off for maintenance and when that happens e.g. France burns an awful lot of gas.Pretty sure >90% of France’s energy consumption is completely green. Renewable grids wish they could boast these kinds of numbers.
by vlovich123
1/16/2025 at 2:43:33 AM
A key metric that controls the cost is just how much storage do we want? 4 hours? 1 day? 1 week?by UltraSane
1/16/2025 at 8:24:53 AM
https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewables-g...by pydry
1/16/2025 at 5:22:10 PM
Very interesting. But having no dispatchable power generation other than 5 hours of storage runs a real risk of local or national outages during rare prolonged wind and solar shortfalls.by UltraSane
1/16/2025 at 9:51:34 PM
On the sunniest windiest days when wind and solar is massively overproducing we can synthesize natural gas or hydrogen. That can be used to fill in the gaps for the last 1-3% of energy.The rountrip efficiency of this is shit (~40% compared to 90% for pumped storage or batteries) but the important thing is it's cheap to store a lot of it for a long time and straightforward to use a lot of it all at once during those rare dark, windless spells. For natgas we even already have the infrastructure.
What's really startling is the cost of producing a kwh from stored syngas/hydrogen generated from solar and wind is similar to the cost of getting a kwh from a nuclear power plant.
So, worst case storage + solar + wind ~= average case nuclear power.
by pydry
1/15/2025 at 11:22:47 PM
Indeed so. Renewables had about 15 years of breakneck-pace progress and massive production with huge economies of scale, which I cannot say about nuclear reactors.But even if nukes were somehow very cheap to build, the review process due to high safety requirements and a lack of a standardized reusable reactor design would make the process slow. To become cost-competitive, nuclear reactors need to be mass-produced, using a proven design that needs little review. The French sort of achieved that, with two mass-produced types of reactors.
Renewables as baseload are still problematic though. Solar cells and even wind turbines are not expensive, but the batteries are very expensive, and are a huge fire hazard. It would be interesting to estimate how much would a kWh cost from a nuclear power station, and from an equal-power LiFePO4 battery installation with the capacity of, say, 3 days worth of the rated max power. Batteries can be replaced gradually, but would need to be replaced much sooner.
[Update:]
If we take a modest nuclear generation unit producing 300 MW of electric power, I'd like to compare it with a battery that can store 300 MW * 3 days of energy from renewable sources. It's 21.6 GWh. With LiFePO4 typical bulk price of $100 per kWh, the upfront cost in batteries alone would be $2.16 billion. It's still lower than nuclear reactor equipment, but very much in the same ballpark.
by nine_k
1/16/2025 at 2:34:32 AM
> but the batteries are very expensive, and are a huge fire hazardHave you seen how the fire risk petroleum presents? It's crazy.
by EdwardDiego
1/15/2025 at 11:59:37 PM
> but very much in the same ballparkYou need to factor in waste disposal and decommissioning costs for nuclear.
And if you are concerned with the fire risks of batteries you may want to think about the impact of serious events with a nuclear reactor. In almost all cases they end up being quite expensive.
by threeseed
1/16/2025 at 2:33:11 AM
Not like there's a history of steam explosions or hydrogen formation in historical nuclear reactor incidents.by EdwardDiego