1/14/2025 at 12:49:02 AM
> “In the 1950s, you had this mid-century hubris—technology could conquer all,” says Ty Smith, director of the California State Railroad Museum. “Part of the reason this episode happened was this unyielding optimism that we could solve every problem. In the face of a blizzard in the Sierra, that just wasn’t true.”My takeaway was the opposite. A hundred years before this, a different group was stuck in the same pass, and couldn't get help for 4 months. This situation resolved in 3 days, and there was no cannibalism. When something similar happened to an Amtrak in 2019, it only took a day and a half, and people still had access to Twitter the entire time. Not to diminish the suffering, etc., etc., but it seems like there's cause for optimism when it comes to technological progress.
by karaterobot
1/14/2025 at 4:07:48 AM
Reading the Wikipedia article on the Donner party[0], it seems like what happened was less so an unfortunate accident and more so the norm for human survival in more perilous environments, which we generally aren't exposed to anymore.by DiscourseFan
1/14/2025 at 11:01:46 AM
Unfortunate accident because they were not supposed to be at the pass, there were well travelled safe routes to California, but the party were told of a "shortcut" that was untravelled and dangerous. They got stranded far from civilisation, with no chance of having someone stumble on them or know to send help.Shouldn't have happened and they got help from some indigenous people that have been surviving there for quite a bit, I reckon - which tells me that people could survive then in those conditions.
by dmbche
1/14/2025 at 12:00:43 PM
Nitpick: when the Donner Party got snowed in, they were already back on a well travelled route, their problem was just that taking the supposed "shortcut" (the "Hastings cutoff" - map: https://www.historynet.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/donner...) delayed them so much that they weren't able to pass the Sierra Nevada while the weather still allowed it. The reason no one stumbled upon them was that no one was foolish enough to attempt crossing the mountains at that time of the year anymore (and, if they had attempted it, they would have ended up in the same situation as the Donner Party).by rob74
1/14/2025 at 3:40:44 PM
The previous winter someone had overwintered no problem because they gathered wood early and knew how to fish.by wbl
1/14/2025 at 5:18:13 AM
Having access to Twitter may well have made that one and a half days seem like 4 months though.by 6LLvveMx2koXfwn
1/14/2025 at 8:43:48 AM
Yeah I'd rather get eaten at that pointby saagarjha
1/14/2025 at 4:40:50 AM
I think that's an acceptable takeaway in the context of the train company. And I don't think it's a sentiment incompatible with optimism about technological progressAs far as I get from the article they didn't call for help for two days trying to free the train with other trains, and the train was stuck in there in the first place because the staff saw a wall of snow and tried to plough through.
I don't know if those were or are standard practice but it sounds like guests got somewhat close to suffering pretty serious consequences for it.
Avoiding cannibalism is nice but also a pretty low bar to clear
by arlort
1/14/2025 at 9:37:52 AM
Commonly management tasked with say, rescuing a disabled train have a plan A and they get focused on trying to make plan A work even if plan A has now introduced so many further obstacles that a complete re-evaluation is appropriate.Yesterday was the first day of in person exams at my employer (a large University) and we got reports that a key system wasn't working, the students were not able to take one of the exams on offer that morning as instead a "User friendly" something-went-wrong-tell-a-grown-up message appeared.
We didn't know, but in fact this bug could have been fixed by (temporarily) removing a single line of code from some server software, maybe 5-10 minutes to implement, test and ship to production under emergency conditions, then an afternoon of paperwork. However our early attempts to diagnose tickled a different bug making it seem hopeless, and so effort focused on manually tweaking the configuration of every single exam computer across the entire physical estate, which took maybe half an hour or more.
The bug could also have been worked around, with insight, by a single SQL query, taking maybe 10 seconds to write and execute. The software would still be broken, but those students could have taken their exam which is what mattered.
But we soldiered on with plan A. And that worked, it was just much slower. If it had taken a whole day I'd like to hope we'd have re-evaluated instead.
by tialaramex
1/14/2025 at 10:47:08 AM
Different plans have different stakes.An exam being postponed is pretty drastically different as a worst case scenario than hundreds of people ending up frostbitten or worse
by arlort
1/14/2025 at 10:14:06 AM
I mean, if this was to happen today, I think it's fairly unthinkable that the same thing (the company tries to solve it themselves for two days before involving authorities) would happen. If nothing else, they'd be sued, and rightly so. There's a difference between people not being able to take exams, and people potentially freezing to death.by rsynnott
1/14/2025 at 7:34:09 AM
generally i agree with you. Though for example comparing the current fire in LA and say The Great Fire in London i'm wondering where the almost 4 centuries of progress are.by trhway
1/14/2025 at 8:44:41 AM
The Great Fire of London began in a bakery - such fires don't tend to burn down cities anymoreby none_to_remain
1/14/2025 at 9:32:08 AM
i agree, prevention and putting down small - wrt. city scale - fires is better. Yet once the fire is several blocks, it surprisingly looks like not much difference.by trhway
1/14/2025 at 10:19:22 AM
Well, for a start, most of LA, you'll note, is still there. The Great Fire of London destroyed 15% of the city's housing and displaced about half the population.Large cities do not, these days, as a general rule, more or less just spontaneously burn down; the LA fires are driven by extreme weather conditions, and even then have not caused remotely the sort of destruction that you used to see from big urban fires.
by rsynnott
1/14/2025 at 10:39:56 AM
>The Great Fire of London destroyed 15% of the city's housingLA - 500 sq miles. The Palicades Fire is 37 square miles. With other fires it is smth like 55 and it is still not done.
>the LA fires are driven by extreme weather conditions
yes, sounds very familiar - in USSR we had a saying "suddenly came winter" explaining all the societal/economical/etc. failures there
by trhway